AIG Dissapoints---11700 Resistance----South Korea Raises

Oil closed at $118.58pb today. Down .59pb on the session.

Gold closed at $883.00po. Down $3.10po today.

Dow finished the session at 11,656.07points. Up a total of 40.3 points today.

Tomorrows fundamentals look like this.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html

Thursday should open lower if the current status of the futures point correctly
(Dow Futures 63 points down @ 1130pmEST)

11700 is a solid resistance point for the Dow to pass. In the next couple days we might either see it pass that point of turn back and head South on bad new in the Financials or higher commodity or oil prices.

South Korea surprisingly raised rates today. As a key trade partner, this will have a negative effect toward the USD.

AIG dissapointed the street by the reporting a $5.36 billion quarterly net loss.

This might make the market wonder what else is out there for other large institution s to show.

Good Fortune from Trade Equity!!!

FOMC Tuesday, Dollar Heading South Short Term?

Oil was down today to $121.41pb. $3.69pb off the open.

Gold closed down on the session. $907.90po was the closing price. Losing $9.60po today.

Dow was down 42.17 points this afternoon. With the Dow closing at 11,284.15.

The FOMC talk is tomorrow. Our guess is that if they do not raise rates, which I believe is measured at less than a 5% chance currently,the dollar will most likely drop in value. This

The economic calendar for tomorrow is below.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html

The commodities took a hard blow today. They were the biggest losers for sure.

Watching the DBA and the JJG for the agricultural pricing outlook in coordination with the fertilizer group and the railroads, you can grab a sneek peak of what might be coming down the pike.

Keep an eye out for Iran or a hurricane to spark a renewed interest in energy.

Don't get caught in a value trap, but as long as the trend is going down, I am going to try to list the largest price losers for the day.

WCI WCI Communities Inc 0.66 Aug 4 Down 0.60 (47.62%)
TRNS TRANSCAT INC 6.5050 Aug 4 Down 2.1950 (25.23%)
LDL Lydall, Inc. 11.81 Aug 4 Down 3.86 (24.63%)
RAIL FREIGHTCAR AMERICA, 27.94 Aug 4 Down 8.19 (22.67%)
USATP USA TECHNOLOGIES PFD 9.00 Aug 4 Down 2.50 (21.74%)
MTMC MTM TECHNOLOGIES 2.00 Aug 4 Down 0.50 (20.00%)
CHIC CHARLOTTE RUSSE HL 10.49 Aug 4 Down 2.45 (18.93%)
WGA WELLS GARDNER ELCTS 1.20 Aug 4 Down 0.28 (18.92%)
TUTR PLATO LEARNING INC 2.19 Aug 4 Down 0.50 (18.59%)
LBY Libbey Inc. 8.23 Aug 4 Down 1.86 (18.43%)
NRVN NATURE VISION INC 1.05 Aug 4 Down 0.24 (18.35%)
EDEN EDEN BIOSCIENCE CP 1.30 Aug 4 Down 0.29 (18.24%)
FCAL FIRST CALIFORNIA FIN 6.5450 Aug 4 Down 1.4550 (18.19%)
SBLKW STAR BULK CARRIERS 2.2690 Aug 4 Down 0.5010 (18.09%)
ORS ORSUS XELENT TECHS 1.16 Aug 4 Down 0.25 (17.73%)
WLT Walter Industries Inc 86.52 Aug 4 Down 18.13 (17.32%)
JAG JAGUAR MINING INC 8.13 Aug 4 Down 1.67 (17.04%)
HILL DOT HILL SYS CORP 2.22 Aug 4 Down 0.45 (16.85%)
BUCY BUCYRUS INTL INC 58.25 Aug 4 Down 11.39 (16.36%)
VIAP VIA PHARMACEUTICALS 1.55 Aug 4 Down 0.30 (16.22%)
NBBC NEWBRIDGE BANCORP 7.08 Aug 4 Down 1.36 (16.11%)
ATLO AMES NATL CORP 19.49 Aug 4 Down 3.68 (15.88%)
FBMI FIRSTBANK CORP 9.77 Aug 4 Down 1.84 (15.85%)
USS U.S. Shipping Partners LP 2.24 Aug 4 Down 0.42
FOOD Vaughan Foods, Inc. 1.60 Aug 4 Down 0.30 (15.79%)

Good Fortune from Trade Equity!!!

Fridays Sideways.....til Tuesdays FOMC

Oil was up on new Friday to $125.10pb. Up $1.02 for Fridays session.

Gold was down Friday to $917.50po. A drop of $5.20po.

Dow finished at the 11,326.32 level on Friday. Down 51.70 points.

What a day! I can only hope the weekend doesn't move as "sideways" as Friday did.

It looks like things might remain quiet until Tuesday when the FOMC announces "no interest rate move".

Everyone was watching the Oil Market today due to the comment from the Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz while speaking to a Washington audience today. Mofaz stated that Iran was close to a ``major breakthrough'' in its nuclear development effort that poses an ``unacceptable'' danger.

There is a deadline for the Iran Goverment to respond on Saturday. Their response could significantly move the Oil market higher on Monday if the Market feels threatened by their response.

The economic calendar here tells you the numbers that come out on Monday.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html


This is a great video that offers insight to what the next leg down might look like.



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Fridays Data Dig........

Oil fell today. Down $2.69 to $124.08pb.

Gold rose today to $922.70po. Up $10.40po on the session.

Dow lost ground today to 11,378.02. Down 205.67 points.

As the GDP number and the Jobless Claim numbers failed to impress this morning, the Dow open over 100 points down. By 11:30am it had cut its losses to 65 points down. But in the last hour of trading the Dow lost over 100 points.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html

By 10am EST 100% of all economic data will be out tomorrow. With the VIX up over 8% today, to 22.94, you can bet the market might be dancing tomorrow.

Tomorrow is a difficult day, depending on how the Market digest the news.

Due to the fact that tomorrow is Friday and people may be liquidating positions prior to the weekend, I would have to say the economic data better be strong or else face the sell off.

Good Fortune from Trade Equity!!!

Back On the Trading Floor! Energy and Fertilizer

Big symbolic day today!

Oil is up $4.58pb today to the $126.77pb level..

Gold is down on the session to $912.30po. Down $14.10po today.

Dow is up 186.13 today.

Once in a blue moon, you see what happened today. And you can bet it won't last for long. By that I mean, you won't see the energy field move up and the Dow move up in coordination.

If I had to pick one, I like Energy over the Dow in the long term. We might see the Dow turn around between 11700 and 12100 and head South.

After hours today we heard about Disney posting a profit of $1.28 billion, or 66 cents a share, up from $1.18 billion, or 57 cents a share, a year ago. The market was pleased. ESPN was the hidden gem for Disney(DIS)

Starbucks also reported after the close today. SBUX was down 2.1% to $14.67 after hours.


The fertilizers are on the move again also. This ties in with the energy. KOL seems to be working very well and the 55 Calls look like a slam dunk.

Tomorrows data looks like this---->

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html


This video is about water generating power.



Good Fortune from Trade Equity!!!

250 Billion Here and There....Starts To Add Up!

Oil was down today to $124.44pb. Down $3.98 on the session.

Gold closed at $922.80. Down $25.70 on Wednesday.

Dow was up to 11,632.38. Up 29.88 points on Wednesday.


Today was one of the darkest days in US Financial history.

The birth of the Credit Crunch has morphed once again. This time it is not the bail out of an investment banking firm. And it is not a "rebate check" that helps to prop up the US Economy, by way of the Plunge Protection Team.

This time it is Part Deux of the SEC Short Sale Insurance Plan.

Our government is giving the financial future of this country away, day by day, and the next generations to come, will pay for their decisions.

Today the Congress voted to authorize a blank check for the Treasury. This is the first time they have ever authorized a blank check for the Treasury for any reason.

The details are in the URL.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/house-approves-housing-aid-fannie-freddie/story.aspx?guid=%7B5F207F2B%2DEA8D%2D4A56%2D8196%2DF24EE226C3D3%7D

The Senate is expected to pass this and President Bush has said he would not veto this bill.



Not that it matters, but you have to ask, if this was not an election year, would this buck keep getting passed on. Would we see bail out after bail out?

What if one aspect got paid for up front? And we didn't pass the cost on to the next generation? What if Freddie and Fannie did not exist? What if we lived as Europe, money was not so cheap and easy, and we passed our houses down through generations.

Do you think people might learn to save money, due to the fact it would be harder to come by?

We are still looking for the Market downturn between 11700 and 12100.

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!

Wednesday: An Extention of a Strong Tuesday Finish

Above is a 3 month graph of the Dow.



Oil continued its freefall to $127.95pb. Down $3.09pb on the session.

Gold closed at $948.50po. Down $15.20po on the session.

Dow closed at 11,602.50. Up 135.16 points today.


Commodities down, stocks up. The market digested some pretty rough news today. This leads us to believe that 12100 might be the target for the reversal. The momentum on the upside is good, due to earnings and the rally in the financials. Keep an eye on the XLF as an indicator. If it starts to show a rounded top, beware.

The energy stocks such as MEE(coal), CHK(gas), and OXY(oil) are really starting to give up some ground and becoming affordable for the next energy push North.

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!

Rough Tuesday Opening

Oil finished today at $131.04pb. Up $2.16pb on the session.

Gold finished at $963.70po. Up $5.70po today.

Dow closed at 11,467.34. Down 28.99 points.

Today it looked like the Little Red Financial Fire Engine that could, just could not any longer.

It would be very hard for me to believe that the dead cat bounce could only bounce this high. I was truly hoping for a little higher before we cam tumbling down again. If Apple and American Express might have shown decent earnings and or guidance, we might not be facing a difficult open tomorrow. But they did, so we are.

That is not to say that this Bear Market Bull Run is over. I still believe we could go higher then tomorrows opening activity. Be patient. There still might be room on the top to grab a better short position depending on how we close tomorrow.

Oil is on the move though. And that might help to kill the party before we get to 12100 or even 11700. Thanks to Iran and the hurricane Dolly, the "black gold" is starting to head North once again.

While searching for profits...........I found a little bit of CNBC humor. Don't just laugh at corporate earnings, check this video out! Behind the scenes look at CNBC.



Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!

Friday Opening Down...Looks Like It

Oil closed today at $129.29. Down $5.31 on the session.


Gold closed at $970.70. Up $8.00 on the day.


Dow closed up to 11,446.66. Up today 207.38 points.

After hours today, Merrill, Microsoft, and Google disappointed with earnings and/or guidance.

This should make for a rocky open tomorrow and being Friday, it could make for a break even close by the end of the day.

If earnings do not totally continue to disappoint, we might extend this short term rally to either 11700 or even possibly 12100. Then head back South after hitting these points of resistance.

We might see more of this in this in the coming year. This is people trying to get their money out of Indy Mac Bank.



Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!

Thursday Market Open

Wednesdays Close looked like this:

Oil closed down today to $134.60pb. Down a total of $4.14.


Gold closed down today to $962.70pb. Down a total of $16.00.


Dow closed at 11,239.28 today. Up 276.74 points.

Thursdays Market open will probably be to the up side unless fundamentals change overnight in the areas of oil or earnings.

This Short Term Rally might take us to Dow 11400 or 11700, so please don't go too long too fast and feel comfortable.

Keep an eye on the USO and watch the key support levels of 110, 100, and 95. Today it closed below 110 @ 109.25. So if it continues to break, 100 will be the next level to keep any eye on.

Can anyone tell me how the Financials intend to make any money with new legislation pending that will regulate them to fractional earnings? No doubt they will find a way to make earnings happen, but not in the first 1-2 years of coming out of the credit crunch.

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!

Friends of the Fed and Hank Paulson(Senate Hearing Video)

Things keep getting better with the "Blank Check" Crowd.

The first thing we hear is....some institutions are not too big to fail.

Now this action says that certain companies can be saved and our gov officials will say who gets saved and who does not.

http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2008/2008-143.htm


The SEC has issued a list of companies that have been identified by the commission.

" Washington, D.C., July 15, 2008 - The Securities and Exchange Commission today issued an emergency order to enhance investor protections against "naked" short selling in the securities of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and primary dealers at commercial and investment banks."


This is a 2 hour video of the hearings where Paulson and Bernanke speak out about why the GOV should give them a "Blank Check"





The securities identified in the Commission's order:

Company Ticker Symbol(s)


BNP Paribas Securities Corp. BNPQF or BNPQY
Bank of America Corporation BAC
Barclays PLC BCS
Citigroup Inc. C
Credit Suisse Group CS
Daiwa Securities Group Inc. DSECY
Deutsche Bank Group AG DB
Allianz SE AZ
Goldman, Sachs Group Inc GS
Royal Bank ADS RBS
HSBC Holdings PLC ADS HBC and HSI
J. P. Morgan Chase & Co. JPM
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. LEH
Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. MER
Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. MFG
Morgan Stanley MS
UBS AG UBS
Freddie Mac FRE
Fannie Mae FNM


This favored situation is costing taxpayers money and should not happen. The market should subsidize the risk that are taken by some of the worlds largest financiers.
Please stop the political crap and let the markets work.

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!

CPI, Bernanke, Oil, and Housing Numbers

Oil was down today, closing the day at $138.74. Down $6.44.

Gold was up today to $978.70. Up today $5.00.

Dow was down today to 10,962.54. Down today 92.65.

Lots of big meaningful information out on Wednesday

The Plunge Protection Team probably cannot stop what is going to happen in the next 10 days. The dramatic downward day we will see, and the a dead cat bounce, bear market short term rally, or a short term trend reversal. Whatever you call it, this leg down will come to an end. At that time we will revisit the level of either 11400, 11700, or 12100 we think. If I had to pick one level more than the others, I like 11400 for the top of the next part of the infamous range trade.

Oil showed some weakness today, but with the hurricane season here, Nigeria still under siege with committed rebels, and Israel and Iran in the background, and current levels of demand/supply, oil still has room to move higher in the next 1-3 months.

Gold to me is surprisingly low considering the situation of dollar destructiveness, and the US having to pick a road to walk on when it comes to driving the economy in the ground or keeping rates low and suffering higher commodity prices. 1300-1500 in gold does not seem like a far stretch.

Here is 8 Minutes of Mr.Commodity, Jim Rogers. Brilliant gentleman that lets you know up front what is on his mind.




Good Fortune from Trade-Equity !!!

AB Yesterday, Today Sprint Announces

SK Telecom announced that it might buy Sprint.

M&A is alive and well. The deal is weeks away if it happens.

Meanwhile, the US Treasury is trying to fleece the taxpayer by petitioning for a blank check from the Federal Gov, for the purpose of bailing out Fannie and Freddie "if needed".

"If Needed", come on Paulson, can't you come up with something better than this. It is so sad that someone that has led the one of the best investment banks(Golden Sachs) is forced to present such an unprecedented argument in an unimaginative fashion.

Senator Bunning is the only person that spoke today that made any sense when addressing the overall situation and that Paulson and Bernanke were petitioning for a miracle that should never have to happen.

http://bunning.senate.gov/public/


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VIX Climbs and Financials Unwind

OIl was up to $145.18 on Monday. Up $0.10.

Gold was up to $981.60. Up $7.90 on Monday.

Dow closed at 11,055.19 on Monday. Down -45.35.


Well as the GSEs now have the full faith of the Fed, we once again pay for this debacle as taxpayers.


Today the Dow broke the technical level of 11100 for a closing level. This is significant and along with poor economic news tomorrow, the Dow will open lower.

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!

Pressures, Catalyst and Change

Oil up to $145.08. Up $3.43 on Fridays session.

Gold up to $960.60. Up $18.60 on the day.

Dow down to 11,100.54. Down 128.48 on Friday.

Crude set a new record Friday.

Fannie and Freddie on the brink of being bailed out.

And the biggest indicator, InBev upping the anty to buy AB for 70 a share from 65.

People drink more during poor economic times, is what the data shows us

Next week with certain indicators being released like CPI being released, while the Fed is scrambling to piece its world back together, might not be the best time to be in the equity markets. Cash is King when Rome is burning.

The uncertainty will end soon and the world will be able to watch equities either go up sharply in the short term or continue its retracement to 50% of the the Dow highs of 14100. We expect that Dow could show us 7000 in the next year. But in the short term might bounce to 11700 or 12100.

Here is a video of big oil talking about big oil.



Indy Mac Bank is now managed by the U.S. Regulators BTW.




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Dow Down 235 /Regulation or Strangulation?

The rumour is that Pimco is taking money out of Lehman. Could this be the demise of Lehman?

Tuesday the Dow was down over 235. It happened after the Vix went from 23 back to 25.


I would think that with the financials down so low right now, that along with several banks, the failure of another large investment bank is totally possible.

Count on the government making it more difficult for the investment banks to make a profit. Paulson, with his years spent at Goldman, might be the only hope to have our markets maintain some type of risk. On the flipside, and I know it is not his decision, I can only imagine that he is one voice that will be pushing to keep interest rates down as long as possible.

Since the Financials lead the Market, with the demise of Freddie and Fannie,
we are headed lower. This will be the first quarter that US Corporations living with $110 plus cost for a barrel of oil. Keep in mind oil is used in so much more than simply transportation.

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Triple Threat Tuesday.....The Big 3 Converge to Show Strength

Oil was down on the day to $136.04. Down $5.33pb.


Gold was down today to $923.30. Down today $5.50po.


Dow finished up today, to 11,384.21. Up 152.25 today.

Jamie Dimon on Charlie Rose discusses the Bear Stearns buyout. This is the full hour program with Rose interviewing Dimon.



The last hour today was pretty powerful for a bear market. It would be hard to describe that kind of exuberance while everyone is saying that the market won't move just because it is oversold.

Yet today held something you don't see very often. Bernanke, Jamie Dimon, and Paulson talking on the same day. This triple barrel assault on bad news and negative outlook brought about a second glance at equities that we have not witnessed in a while.

Is this a temporary bottom? It sure closed with momentum that could last a day or two. If it is a temporary bottom, it could last to either 11700 on the Dow or possibly 12100.

If you think it is going to go that type of distance, you might want to check out the ETF, SSO. The IYR moved big today and will surely drop fast once this momentum leaves. Watch the fast food stocks as commodity prices continue to drop. This can boost their bottom line quick.

Keep an eye out for the Oil Report in the am. It could add to the downward momentum of the energy sector.




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Pickens Energy Plan.....Not a Bad Idea

Vix........25 and going higher!!!

Oil closed today at $141.37. Today oil was down $3.92


Gold closed today at $928.80. Down $4.80 Monday.


Dow closed today at 11,231.96. Down 56.58 in Mondays session.

Watch Peter Schiff talk here....the gold standard is a steep idea, but there are some good points. You cannot artificially prop up this country until everything is "free with interest" and there are "no payments until the last year of your life".





With oil currently breaking down, and commodity stocks and commodities feeling the pressure from the US Dollar, will we see the Vix capitulation that everyone talks about? Will we see Vix 35-40 with a big bang down day that will lead to a short term rally in this bull market?

I wish I could answer this question. I believe the best we can do is to be looking out for the potential signs that might point to us to a possible trend reversal.

The dollar has done a great job in the last 3 trading sessions. It is causing the inflationary trend to see a different direction in the commodity arena.

Tuesday and Thursday of this week we will hear Ben Bernanke speak and probably speak tough on the "stronger" dollar belief that he and Paulson commonly refer to but rarely act upon.

I expect that in one week, one month, or some undetermined amount of time, our government might have to drop rates one more time before they start to raise them.
There is no other way to prop the financials up after finding out how much more money they will need in an era of new government financial regulation.

So, as our government trys to assist the economy, it looks as if it is shooting itself in the foot based on the new information it is receiving due to the opening of the new Fed window for investment banks to finance their "not so good" secured debt.

Until all the doors and windows are open to all, there will not be any transparency.
The financials keep surprising us, and yet the market looks like it might be absorbing bad news in a better way. It feels as if it wants to bounce North a little, but cannot get a good floor to bounce from.

Lets keep our eyes out for that floor.

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!

Calm Before the Storm...or Is It a Hurricane?

Oil(CLQ8) was up today to $145.37. Up $1.80pb.

Gold(GCQ8) was down today $11.50 to $935.00po

Dow was up today to 11,288.54. Up 73.03 today.


This is a great video talking about oil. 3-5 years could bring $500 per barrel oil Professor Hirsch says.








It looks like the storm might be changing for the short term at least. If you look at the UUP, you will see it has room on the upside to move over the next 5 to 15 days to 23. The UUP measures the value of the dollar. This equity index involves looking into the currency market, so it can be tricky. Trichet raised rates in the EU and possibly due to the influence of Paulson(US Treasury)made his rate hike sound as if it could be a "one and done" instead of a chain of rate hikes. Well, the market might have been expecting a series of rate hikes, and when they heard his guidance on the state of EU currency, the Market decided the Dollar was not going to take the beating it might have if the EU were to commit to a series of rate hikes.

This in turn is causing the commodities to break the pattern that they have been in.
They have been on a bull tear for over a year now and the world will need these commodities for years to come, but they look to be losing a little steam right now.

Ultimately though, until the Fed raises rates instead of simply talking about it, the US Dollar is cursed and oil and food will continue to rise to the occasion.

There are some great coal companies with high P/Es that are still available.
Our favorite is CNX(Consol Energy).

It was pretty interesting that that Dow closed below 11,300 today after being spending much of the session above that level. The news that came out today was anything but pretty, yet the market rose. This news might be digested over the weekend and we might see a tumble on Monday. Watch 2 elements to cause change either way.

One is Oil, hurricane or Middle East problems could send oil spiraling.
Two is the Dollar, if the Fed were to come out this weekend and pull a "Bear Stearns" out of their ear, it could have a positive impact on the dollar that would shift the Market into the an equity frenzy by crushing commodities.

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!

Cramer Calls It a Rally........LOL

Oil(CLQ8) was up today to 141.74. Up 77 cents.

Gold (GCN8) closed today at $942.50, up $16.30.

Dow closed today @ 11,382.26, up 32.25.





Today was not a rally........they call it short covering!


The Auto industry lead the pack today.

http://tiny.cc/7G1yk


Oil is choking the Western World right now. Until oil breaks, Fannie Mae and housing comes back, do not count on the Equity Market coming back for the long term.

In the short term, keep an eye on oil and the VIX to hit 35-40and then look to go long in the short term.

Jobs and Unemployment come out tomorrow. Thursday is a half day. Oil at all time highs, and a 3.5 day weekend...are you leaving your positions open? I bet not.

Good Fortune from Trade Equity!!!

Mondays Market......Its Not Nap Time!

Oil was down 21cents to close at $140.00 even.

Gold was down $3.00 to $928.30.

Dow was up 3.5 points top 11,350.01.

Don't forget that this week only has 4 trading days.

Today was sluggish by any definition. Up over 85 points by 11:30EST, the Market started to tail off with one last attempt to pass 11400 between 2:15 and 3:30EST.

With the fact that trading will not be taking place on Friday due to the July 4th holiday, we could see (Wednesday probably do to news) some major movement, we believe to the downside. It could start downward on Tuesday and then pick up momentum on Wednesday.

That is if oil hangs tough around $140 per barrel. If it sells off for some reason we might see the Dow drift north without conviction like it did for the first few hours of today.

Stocks that we are into that did well today are GMCR,IPI,MER. But we look for more downside action from the IYR.

Inflation is still on and will not be assisted by unemployment later this week. Gold(GLD) should perform well until Bernanke steps in.

Look for the EU to raise rates this week, and crush the dollar further.

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!

Lock In....Get Ready For Dow Ski Slope 10500

Dow down 106.91 points to 11346.51

Gold up to $931.3po. Up $16.20 today.

Oil(CLQ8) set a new record again today. The high was 142.99. It closed at 140.21,
up .57c.

http://tiny.cc/3s1YV

Look for the Dow to fall hard either Monday or Tuesday. Possibly another 300-400 day depending on earnings and other fundamentals that might come out.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html


Monday is a slow day for economic news, but look for the banks or the investment banks to issue some type of market moving news about capital raising. Possibly (MER)
Merrill.

Already the bond insurer MBIA is in trouble as their rating is at jeopardy with Moodys.

And late today the news broke that on CNBC that said "Moody's Investors Service warned it is likely to cut its credit ratings on Morgan Stanley, saying the U.S. investment bank has made expensive trading mishaps and it's unclear if it can improve its risk management."
That was right after the XLF hit a 52 week low and people were just starting to question the standing of JPM.

Below tells you why Gold is hot right now.




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Elevator Down to Basement -358 Dow

Dow was down today, 358.41 points to 11,453.42.

Oil(CL08Q) was up $5.09 to $139.64

Gold was up today, +32.80 (+3.72%) to $915.10.

Every sector was down today with the Financials right there on top of the losers.


We are headed south with BUD in the fight of their life, because the Belgians are coming on strong. This could be a fast dance to the finish.

With oil hitting a record high today, our economy is going to be constricted unless the Fed steps in with either a rate hike for interest rates or what they did in 2001 with currency intervention. The were on the market buying dollars. If they did it again, they would need to coordinate this action with other govs to make this really work. Their rhetoric worked 10 days ago, but the dollar was trending North when they shot it out. Now our Dollar once again is headed down.

We might bounce up on the open tomorrow and depending how high we bounce, it might be a selling opportunity in GMCR, QID, or SDS.

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!

Buying Op for 3-6 Months

Oil (CLQ8)finished $2.57 down today to $134.52pb.

Dow finished at 11814.35. Up 6.92 points on the session.

Gold closed at 887.50, down $4.10 today.


http://us.ft.com/ftgateway/superpage.ft?news_id=fto062520081552256842&referrer_id=yahoofinance

The Fed failed to raise rates today. This should lead to higher commodities/agriculture pricing and Monsanto just reported record numbers and watched their shares drop.

Less than teen spirit, this smells like a bargain.

The whole sector has been out performing for the last year and should continue to do so for the next 3-6 months.

The financials are just starting to deal with lawsuits brought on by the Subprime mess.

We should see them drop further also in the next 3-6 months along with commercial real estate the closer we get to a rise in interest rates.

GMCR is starting to look very weak today. The puts for the July 35 are still cheap, if you think we are going to see a quick slide in the next 3 weeks.

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!

No Change Down,,,,,,Some Change Down>>> 11500 Dow

This was interesting. Mccain views on alternative fuels, talked about on CNBC.
Investments for new technology to stop our dependency on foreign oil.
Tax Incentives on new tech and the consumer end is needed to change habits on the US.









The thing most likely to rally if there is no change tomorrow, could be the Financials.

If there is no change, inflation will continue grow, and you might see commodities rise and stocks go down.

http://www.forexfactory.com/
index.php?s=f748727ea35fd1342b270aaa5f87fdf4&tomorrow=1

IPI took some off some 6.86% after a great run from $49 to $76 in 3-4 weeks.

Keep an eye on GMCR...it looks like it is headed South.

I look for the whole market to break down over the next 1-2 weeks.

The IYR is falling to pieces right now and will probably see new lows in the area of $55 per share. Commercial Real Estate has another year to feel the real pain.

http://finance.google.com/finance?chdnp=0&chdd=0&chds=0&chdv=1&chvs=Linear&chdeh=0&chdet=1214340093250&chddm=1955&q=NYSE:IYR&

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com

Calm Before The Storm-June23rd

Oil was up to $136.74/today +$1.38

Gold was down to $887.20/today -$16.50

Dow was down .33 to 11842.36 today

The Market is waiting for Bernanke to unveil his Fed Funds rate plan for the future.

I expect tomorrow to be semi quiet also.

BTW...the next time you think Saudi...think of wrong kind of oil, and not enough of it. Sour not Sweet Crude is what is produced in the Middle East. So, once again, it looks like in another dire circumstance, we are running short on bullets when it comes to market intervention and possible relief from the thumb of pricing pressures we have allowed ourselves to become subject to.

Merrill is trying to raise capital by selling assets. One of their assets for sale might be BlackRock. Right now they own part of BlackRock and have a Asset Management agreement with BlackRock. So if the sales does happen, the fallout should be interesting. This could also effect the overall rating of Merrill and its ability to raise future capital. BlackRock is supposed to be worth $12Billion.

Watch the catalyst------------

1. Oil- driving inflation and specifically higher commodity prices

2. September/October Foreclosures peak- taking the cash out of the pockets of homeowners on a nationwide basis.

3. Interest Rates- rising over the next year to fight inflation and prolong the agony in the housing market.

4. Jobs/Unemployment- heading for a bad relationship between the two, as we head into a possible new President with a less than stellar vision of how to spur new growth in a time of economic crisis.

I think we have a clear picture of what direction the Market is going and why. Not to say that we won't have times when light creeps through the window and sparks a bull rally.

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!

Saudi Meeting Might Assist With Oil

There is a meeting this weekend between the Saudis and the government and business leaders.

The outcome of this meeting could lead to lower oil prices in the future. Along with the fact that the government of China decided to repeal subsidies for gas and diesel this week 15-18%, we can clearly see global governments recognizing the toll high oil is bringing to global commerce.

http://tiny.cc/iPshj

Until the Bernanke Showdown

Today:

Oil was up

Gold was up

Dollar was down

Dow was down 130+

Options expire on Friday, so keep an eye on oil possibly going up.

This is a good video on oil supply/demand.




Today we touched then bounced off of 12000 on the Dow. This was a test of the 3 month lows. There were people on CNBC speaking about 10500 on the Dow. That was the first time I heard anyone talk about any marker under 11000 on the Dow.


Thursday and Friday brings us some fundamentals from the

reports concerning the Unemployment Claims and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html


I think we could see 10750 in the coming months. We might bounce up to 12100 or 12300 on the way down, on news of a "write up" instead of a write down or some other unexpected good news in the financials or the equivalent.

IPI is still working but may pull back in the next day or two. This could create a buying opportunity for IPI.

Bernanke talks on the 24th. It looks as if there is no way of an interest rate hike.
Watch the GLD ETF if/when Bernanke does not raise the Fed Funds Rate.

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!

Goldman Sachs Earnings Before The Bell--Sovereign Wealth

http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20080617.html

Morgan Stanley reports on Thursday.

Barclays is saying it might need to raise $8 Billion by selling stock to sovereign wealth funds. It seems as if these funds are the debt/equity dumping grounds of 2008.
I would like to see an estimate of how long our global financial models would be stuck in the mud if they were not able to sell their soul to sovereign wealth funds.

And while we are on the topic, why doesn't the government facing the largest social/financial crisis in the world, have a sovereign wealth fund?

The US is so short on meeting its obligations currently, this might be a way(outside of raising taxes) to shore up the balance sheet.

This should be a great week with fundamentals moving the Market.

It seems as if the markets want to move North, and therefore they might digest bad news in a "less than dire" manner.

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!

CME Sees Gov Approval, LDK, IPI, and DRYS Rise

May the King Justice help the CME?

http://tiny.cc/70Fhz

The stock has been hammered the last 2 months, this might possibly give rise to an up ward trend. There is plenty of room to rise vs. earnings.

The charts are showing good stuff at IPI and LDK. Wait for the IPI pullback to buy though. Potash is supposed to see 200% gains in the next 2 years and they won't do that and leave IPI behind. Keep in mind they have all seen a nice run up currently.

LDK looks great and on target to hit our 55 target buy September, if oil doesn't go to 80 per barrel.

DRYS is bouncing but the technicals look like a head and shoulders pattern. So if you enter, consider a pure short term trade. 93 is solid resistance, and might be considered as an exit.

CNBC is talking about the FEDs possible or not so possible rate hike. The Saudis are talking about raising oil production by 500k barrels next month. Keeping in mind this is an election year and a potential increase of rates, could topple the market and that could be blamed on Republicans in the November election. So, Paulson and Bernanke are being labeled as "cheap talk" on Fast Money. I think this is what we were talking last week.

Blah-Hoogle Well Defined

http://tiny.cc/n1tq3

This link takes you to the NYTimes article on Jerry Yang, shareholders, and the starts to foreshadow the upcoming story that might unwind in favor of the shareholder.

We were wrong--6 Trading Days of Potential Bull

We may not test 11700 just yet. If Lehman Brothers can pull off a sale or raise money to survive, they may lead the financials out of the woods at least until earnings show with either positive or negative effects. Lehman lead the financials higher today.

The street is fearing that Goldman may have something unexpected on earnings.

On the 24th Bernanke will speak. From the close today, we could have a short term bull run til the 24th.

What a finish today!

Up 165 points on the Dow.

Oil down about $2 per barrel, while Comex GOLD August closed $1.10 higher.

LDK announced a 5 year contract and bounced up 7.15% today.

IPI was very strong today also. This stock was up 3.72% today, and up in a huge way this week.

DRYS was down over $20(from $93 to $73) per share the last 7 trading days and had a
nice bounce today, up 3.38% today.

Barring any oil mishaps this weekend, such as a pending strike in Nigeria or a hurricane, equities could have a nice short term run and if Bernanke does the what the market wants, there is room for the Dow to move further up at this point.

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!

Sell Side Friday

Kudlow is putting them to the test here.


Without the big run up this week and closing stronger on the last half hour of the trading session, it might be hard to believe that tomorrow(Friday) has the opportunity to take us closer to the 11700 lows on the Dow.

The CPI numbers come out 830am EST tomorrow. This could set the tone for the day and structure a sell off all by itself.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ajgfmr4PRbxQ&refer=home


The game is on as the Dollar makes gains this week, while the Markets drive the idea that the Fed should not raise rates at this time. The cost of borrowing needs to stay cheap so the Market can have a proper rebound. One that is not structured by the government givings in the form of stimuli packages and corporate buy outs.

If the Fed raises the rate, we might see 11000 on the Dow from 2006.

It wasn't that long ago, but this trip seems like it is taking forever!

Why Gold?

This chart shouts buy!

GLD now has options. Bernanke might not bluff, but he might raise 25 basis points. GLD might still work. We think he will bluff on the stronger dollar is happening.
The Plunge Protection Team is talking tough, but that is all they have.
If it dips below 850 per ounce would exit.

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!

GLD---SDS---IPI---Hot Hot Hot

Cramer wants to tell us daily that there is "Bull Market Somewhere".

Well, with the global economy the way it is, this elusive Bull Market is a little harder to find.

There are a few sectors that are moving like fertilizer, but some of them have shown such large gains in the last year I would have to be very careful that they aren't toast on their P/E.

3 trades we do like right now are GLD, IPI, and the SDS.

GLD will work until Bernanke speaks possibly longer depending on what he says.

IPI along with the Fertilizer Sector is on fire right now. This is an agriculture play and with the Midwest under water, this might work for sometime like last year.

The SDS is the Ultrashort S&P ETF. This is waiting for the capitulation bottom that will ultimately happen on day in the future. We are watching 11700 on the Dow.

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!

No News is Bad News

The Dow closed up 9.44 points today.

Crude dropped today by more than $3 pb today.

Some sectors were getting dropped like a rock today. Solar and Shipping were 2 of them.

After hitting the their 52 week low, the Financials spiked up today.


There is not a lot of news coming out in the next 24 hours to drive the Market in one direction or another. Much like the last 2 days, we will probably just float back and forth. Unless of course, Crude Oil inventories are way off of their estimates.

On Thursday, we will see the Unemployment Numbers, Retail Numbers, and Business Inventory Numbers.

Watch the 8:30am EST release of the CPI Numbers on Friday morning. This could move the Market dramatically.

Cross your fingers that this does not continue to happen just because the Dollar is
a 3 month high. Make the defensive trade tomorrow!

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!

Makret Closer---The New US Energy Policy

Let's take a look at the Big 3 indicators:

Oil pulled back today after a record run on Friday, and large gains on Thursday.
(Think is it going up tomorrow and in the near future?...We do)


The Dollar was up today on Paulson "speak"(talk is cheap and does not last along time usually. Although, they seemed real concerned!)

Dow Futures for Tuesday. 12:10 AM they are showing -49 on the Dow @ open.


--------------------------------------------------------

The "New US Energy Policy" is what we are facing just weeks before the June 24th FOMC announcement by Mr.Bernanke. If this were a gunfight, Bernanke would scream..."I am almost out of bullets, and Treasury Secretary Paulson would yell back, "Intervention is never off the table".

Paulson said that today, and Bernanke has to be thinking over his lines for the 24th.

If the Fed keeps rates the same for the next 6 months, interest rates might drift North from where they are knowing that sooner or later they will have to raise the rate to combat inflation. Depending on where we are in the cycle and the amount of recovery that has actually taken place in the credit markets, higher rates could impede US profits.

The chances are very slim, but what would happen if the Fed lowered rates?
This would help equities and will probably give oil the boost to $150 or 200 per barrel.

Bernanke has to give the "stimuli" package a chance to work(which we think we have seen the results of the stimuli package in the WalMart report last week. They cashed 350+ Million in Gov checks)Excuse me while I get a bucket, I think I am sick with the idea that this will have anything to do with this economic recovery.

In the meantime, the Stock Market is going to tell the Fed(between now and then, how bad things are and whatever the Fed decides to do, it should assist the Stock Market)
that they need to be subsidized by lowering rates or other assistance. But this is going to fall on def ears while the Market tanks either right above or below current lows(watch 11700).

Stuck between a rock and a Market is where the Fed is now. And the legislative Branch knows it. You can follow this soap opera on almost any financial channel.
In the next year, you will see several proposals to legislate the Financial Industry to death. This might be the real catalyst for change that leads to lower levels on the Dow in the coming years. The Financials have put themselves on the chopping block and may pay a hefty price for it. Since they lead the Market in good times and bad, we may be watching a fallen leader go in hiatus for some time.

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!

$Market Closer$ 394 Points Down>8th largest Drop

394 Points Down.........that is one long elevator shaft.

This was what we have been waiting for while CNBC picks up their cheerleading outfits from the dry cleaners!

Was it the jobs report, that was by JP Morgans account, misunderstood by the entire Market? Or was it the fact that the Israeli sabre rattling had oil triggering Limit Up shortly after Heating Oil went Limit Up.

The USO, SKF, and the SDS, were all on fire for the ETF corner.

The commodity trend is looking very good right now....watch the DBA.

This feels like last year all over again with the help of unemployment, and no equity left in the residential sector. Yet we do know that the Fed will bail out if needed. And while it looks as if they will surely be tested in the next 3 weeks(June 24th) until the Bernanke rate talk, it looks as if holding rates steady, might not be exactly what the Market is wanting to hear.

The Investment Banks are facing new legislation governing their practices, which will surely have unintended profit constrictions(outside of the constrictions caused by higher interest rates).

The term "Lame Duck" doesn't really mean that we have to eat from the duck that will be served to us in the next election does it?

This trickle down to a possible Dow of 11700 is starting to feel like an old pair of blue jeans.

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!

Are They Joking? $500 Sweet Crude to You!!!

In imaging I thought this was the issue as a Politician, that I should really throw my weight behind and tackle, here are a couple possible scenario solutions that I see being proposed:

1. Define and Regulate speculation. Try to stop it, so the Gov could provide the liquidity the market would need. Then raise taxes to pay for the "puff"(as in Puff the Magic Dragon) liquidity. .

2. Tax It to Death. Tax the speculators so they wont want to do it any longer. This is a great idea! This way we can see $500 per barrel oil before July 4th, 2009.


Soros is like Zoro. Whatever mask he wants to wear is what he wears that day.
His motivation to appear with these people is beyond comprehension.

We would like to here your best scenario for the US Government manipulation and "intervention" in the Oil Markets.

If yours is chosen as the best possible GOV/Oil Scenario, you will win a gallon of sweet crude that might be worth $500!

$Market Closer$ Head Fake & Trichet Turns Trend!

The Dow closed about 207 up today.

With Gold down on the day and oil up by over $5 pb after Europe(Trichet) announce it might be raising rates.


The US brought the Credit Crisis to the party, and seems to be behind the curve as the music starts. There is a distinct possibility the Trichet might raise interest rates before the US.

This could have a giant effect on oil and the dollar. Oil will go up and the dollar will go down against the Euro, and possibly other currencies.

The word on Lehman is that it might raise $5B. It has already raised $8B from the sale of bonds.

Does anyone feel that the analyst are in bed together? Trade-Equity.com has had this feeling before, but in the last 3 days, it truly seems apparent that they are doing more than scratching each others backs. And as the Feds investigate manipulation in the Energy markets, it would be nice to see them look closer at the analyst that this industry so depend on. The fact that the brokers can recommend to buy another broker reaks of impropriety and should be examined with a fine tooth comb.

Lehman is going to survive. But if they are outside the scope of leverage in todays market compared to their peers, their price should reflect that and not be manipulated by an upgrade my Merril, after Lehman talks up Merril on their performance on their Asia potential. This is a hypothetical scenario, yet it feels like such things are happening in that sector.

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!

$PreMarket Buzz$ Jobless Claims Down....Dow Opening Up

We have been pretty busy the last couple days and unable to blog the way we want to.

After making some changes, we think that we have solved the problem.

Let take a look at the Big 3 with 20 minutes to open this Thursday morning.

Dow Futures: Up 31, 12435

Oil: Up 37 cents, to 122.67

Comex Gold: Down 13.20, to 870.60

Today looks like a day when the commodities might get some relief after 2 days of seeing pressure. Yet miners might continue to fall.

Jobless Claims and Retail number came in better than expected.

WalMart says that they almost doubles their expected sales.


Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!

$Market Closer$ The Dow is Slipping Toward 11700

The Market was quiet today until around 1pm EST. Then the VIX kicked in and we start to move. The morning was 20 up and the 20 down on the Dow. But soon we came to understand the day, that the 50's were it today while heading South.

From open and shooting up to 12554.05 by 10:30am EST. Then passing the 12342.12 mark by 2:30pm EST. And finally touching the 12450 level to finish dramatically in the last 10 minutes of the day at 12402.85. The Dow finishing down 101. We look for it to get darker before we see the sunshine.

The story in our camp today was oil. It started to break down today, finishing the session over $3.30 down on the day.

Check this 3 day chart of the Crude Oil out.

http://charts.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=CBN8&data=Z30&jav=adv&vol=Y&divd=Y&evnt=adv&grid=Y&late=y&code=BSTK&org=stk&fix=

$PreMarket Buzz$ Inflation or Growth from Bernanke?

With 20 minutes to open, the 3 major indicators this morning look like this:

Oil is down to 126.37 down about$1.30 per barrel.

Comex Gold is 887.20, down 9.80.

Dow Futures is up 26 points to 12532.

Bernanke spoke this morning and said thing are better but "conditions remained strained". He signaled that the Fed will keep things the same and not change the Fed funds rate. Bernanke also mentioned that oil might cause growth to slow in the economy, the the commodity prices have to show a total pass through to the consumer, and that the consumer has held better than expected.

He also mentioned that the commercial real estate sector might still see downward effects. If you would like to take advantage of commercial real estate, we like the IYR.

We think that the Market will challenge the Fed to lower rates one more time. Although, the Fed does not feel it this will assist the economy in its recovery.

The market might go up a little this morning and then head South to chase 12300.
Again while certain stock are sitting their support levels, we like the SDS to take advantage of the downward trend of the s&p.

http://www.forexfactory.com/


Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!

$Market Closer$ Hard Close Today

As this blog goes to print, it looks as if the Dow is going to close down today.

With 35 minutes to close, the Dow is down 149 point to 12489.

Oil is at $120.65, up 30 cents pb.

Comex Gold is up to 896, up $4.50 po.

The rumours that the investment banks were spreading to the street, in terms of the rating agencies not knowing and not understanding how to calculate the debt on the investment bank books, are finally catching up to them. This looks like it could be the second major shoe to drop, and it could create a ripple large enough to exhibit the ever talked about "capitulation", that in the end could spark another rally, like we have seen for the last 2 months.

So, as we enter, we exit, only to enter again!

Exit positions or hedge, that is the question. How are your trades holding up right now? These are the questions to ask yourself. Are they defensive(HUM)?

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!

$Market LunchBox$ No Confidence In The Banks!

The banks are falling apart today. The SKF is rallying, while the Dow is off about 180 points to 12458 at 1:15 EST. Wachovia and Washington Mutual are getting rid of their CEOs. We are looking at the next quarter of earnings for Financials, and expect very difficult numbers to digest. People are starting to analyze these numbers to see if the write down might be lessining, but we think they will be surprised.

Oil is up on a rumour on an Israeli website that the US is getting ready to mount a strike on Iran. This could take oil much higher. Oil is currently at 128.23 (up $1.05). This could also cause gold to hit the ceiling.

Equities look like they might be testing the 12300 this week or next, and then we have 11700 as the next major support on the Dow.

Goof Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!

$PreMarket Buzz$ Dow Elevator Going to 12,300?

With 30 minutes to Market open let's take a look at the 3 major indicators:

Dow Futures: 12580 (down 57 points)

GCM8/GOLD June 2008 (COMEX): 888.20 (up .90)

Oil: $126.06pb (down $1.30)

Economic Calendar: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html

On of the most interesting stories out today is the fact that the Euro Banks are being hit hard.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/european-shares-fall-banking-sector-worries/story.aspx?guid=%7B0508ECA5%2DFEA9%2D45E4%2DBB88%2DF238E3D8EAF9%7D

We like the SDS for the trip South in the next several weeks.

Marriot spoke and lowered their US outlook, based on lower trends throughout the US.

Yes, it looks like Tech will fare better than most other stocks. (watch VMW)

But when will the Dow hit 12300?

Will it be when oil takes the profitability of the US Corporations in Q3 or Q4 earnings?

Or possibly when LEH is re-evaluates the Level 3 assets that Einhorn(from Greenlight Capital) wants to talk about?

Here is a clip of Einhorn talking about his book and ALD.

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com

$Market Closer$ Dow Down 7.92 To Finsh The Week

Oil finished up 92 cents to $127.54pb. This looks like major weakness and due to that we like the DUG etf.

The British Bankers' Association chose to do nothing with the way LIBOR is calculated. This decision left many skeptics feeling dumbfounded.

Investment Banks announced today that they see M&A activity up for the next 2 quarters in the banking industry. This comes as no surprise as regional banks battle to keep their head above water due to the housing crisis.

Well, the storm selloff did not happen today. But peak weakness is showing still. If oil drops next week, the Markets could vault themselves through the resistance of 1404-6 on the S&P.


Natural Gas was up 32 cents today. NG might dislocate itself from oil next week if oil take a dive South. Also, you might want to keep an eye on coal.

Have a great weekend.

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!

$Market LunchBox$ Fridays Look Forward

TIF beat earnings and look as if it is headed back to 55 per share. Meanwhile other retailers such as JCrew are losing double digit percentages.

At 1:40 EST, the Dow is up 12.70 points to 12, 658, after drifting back and forth today, off its high of 12,689.70.

The Dow looks very unsure of itself compare to the S&P, who looks like it wants to break out of the 1406 resistance level. This will be more difficult as the calendar moves forward. More earnings will come out that will reflect the cost of oil, and these cost will be past on to the consumer. This in turn will effect the consumer, who has taken a hit in his/her net worth, due to reeal estate price decline. In the 3rd and 4th quarter of 2008, the consumer will spend a considerable amount less that they did in the 3rd and 4th quarter of 2007 because of this.

The housing crisis should peak in September or October of this year. We think the commercial real estate front will be taking a big hit due to energy and the poor consumer.

China will probably fall off a bit post Olympics. But will pick back up within 3 months we believe.

With big support around $124-125 per barrel, oil will possible test those levels next week.

Gold is up $8.90 today. The VIX is down almost 3% to 17.61.

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!

$PreMarket Buzz$Looks Like a Higher Open!

The numbers are starting to come in.

Consumer spending slowed in this quarter. Fuel costs, real estate, slow wage growth have America questioning the next dollar they spend.

Dell beat earnings with solid numbers after the bell yesterday.

It sounds as if United and USAirways have broken off talks.

Currently with 10 minutes til open, the Dow Futures are up 44. Gold is up over $7.

The S&P is up 4.20.

This gives us an interesting outlook.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/economy/economic_calendar.asp?siteId=

It looks like today will open up in positive territory.

Good Trading from Trade-Equity.com!!!

$Market Closer$ Fridays Open Could Be Lower

With oil closing the session at $126.62pb, the Dow tailed off of its highs to close up 52.19 points to 12646.72.

We think oil might bounce again off of its support at $125.50 and head North back up to $135pb.

Bernanke will be in the news tomorrow and his speech content also.

GM said that 19000 people took a buyout. At the same time, JP Morgan merges with Bear Stearns and 8000 people go unemployed.

Chris Plummer wrote a great piece on why you want $8 a gallon gas. It is a shame that it takes $8 to motivate the US on an energy policy or pushing technology in the right direction.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/eight-reasons-youll-rejoice-we/story.aspx?guid=%7B82FCE1B0%2D1889%2D43B0%2DA465%2DE29BFEE95576%7D

We are trading in a range and it looks like 1406 on the S&P is a difficult spot of resistance.

Tomorrow sure looks like a great day to selloff.

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!

$Market LunchBox$ One Hour to Bernanke!

The Dow is up 113 points to 12,707. This looks like the perfect storm to see a sell off start with the Bernanke speech. His speech is in Switzerland and prob won't be covered live by CNBC or Bloomberg, the market might have a delayed reaction to the news. He is supposed to start speaking at 2:30pm EST.

We like the SKF, and although it looks like it might be a little early, the SKF(with the pressure of Lehman Brothers-LEH) in the industry, we think the SKF is headed higher.

Oil spiked on inventory short 8.8 million barrels. then headed South to test the support levels again. Currently oil is $127.06pb.


The VIX is down over 6% to 17.89.

If the selloff happens today and possibly tomorrow the we might be headed down to test the lows of 13500 on the Dow.

The GLD is down almost 2% currently.

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!

$PreMarket Buzz$ Big News Day

Bernanke will be the key to todays close.

It looks as if the Dow will open about 30 point down. Oil is $1.99 to $129.04 pb.

Gold is opening down today. GDP was revised to analyst expectations.

Sears reports losses, and Costco beats estimates. Big Lots is trading 6-7% higher in pre-market.

Jobless claims come in higher again.

It is going to be a busy day today.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!

$Market Closer$Oil Moving North Off Support

This afternoon was a little different. The Dow finished up 45.68 points, to 12594.03. While oil finished up after a 2-3 day pull back to bounce off of its support around $125.50pb to over $130pb.

The news is that the demand is slowing based on higher oil prices. Yet we are still living with threats like the one that exist in Nigeria and the Rebels attacking the pipeline. Along with hurricane season we think that threats to demand will increase over the next several months.

Tomorrow, at 2:30pm EST, Bernanke speaks. Not to mention the massive amount of economic information that will be released prior to him speaking. This could be a great reason for the Market to head South if Bernanke starts to speak about bank failures or keeping interest rates the same or raising them.

Financials have been breaking down the last few days and may show a positive sign in the morning tomorrow, and then turn in the afternoon. That could be one scenario.

Business spending is up and this is an extremely good sign that you do not normally see going into a recession. Plus, over the last several years, companies have put a lot of cash on their books.

DRYS finished up over 9% today. It might go to $130 by September.

Gold was down today.

We think the consumer is the key to the whole economic situation. And this might be a good time to be in cash to take advantage of another shoe to drop. The Market has shown strength since the Bear Stearns/JP Morgan purchase. The chance that the Dow might pull back to 12300, we feel is pretty good once everyone understands the regional banking situation, consumer inflation, and the tax on earnings oil might provide the corporations in the next 2 months.

Can our economy handle this pressure without having the Market react negatively?

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!

$Market LunchBox$ DRYS is Bouncing North!

We think that with the Dow trading down currently <2:07> down 23 points to 12525, and in the mid-term in a range between 12,500 and 11,500, you really have to look for superstars in this market.

Yesterday, we discussed DRYS looking like it was ready to bounce. Today the stock is up over 6%.
We think it will go back to $116 and possibly to $130 per share.

And while overall Stocks is going back and forth from negative to positive today, Treasuries still remain out of favor. This tells us that the major money remains positive on Stocks. While the Financial sector is showing considerable weakness today(displayed in the XLF/SKF), the news today is clearly making note of how bad the banking situation is for regional banks in the US.

The number we keep hearing is 100 to 150 are going to fail over the next 2-3 years.

We think that this might open a door for a major client grab from Internet banks and larger banks. Think about it, gas is up, driving is down. Your bank fails as you read the news online and there is an ad running next to your news article. BINGO! This might be the first alternative for millions of people.

SYNO and TGH are showing extremely high volume today.

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!

$PreMarket Buzz$ Durable Goods look Durable!

Positive news this morning, minus cars and planes numbers not looking so good.

All of the Equity Futures are up with 22 minutes to open. The Dow is up 39 points to 12592.

Oil is down $1.71 to $125.17pb. Gold and Silver are pointing down to open.

Something very interesting was announced by Dow Chemical today. They said they will raise prices 20% to make up for the losses due to fuel and energy prices they are incurring.

This looks like the first (sector) that will be passing along these cost directly, and adding to inflation across the board. We knew transports would have to do that, but if Industrials start show price increases in the area of 20%, it will effect many consumer products that are used daily.

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!

$Market Closer$ Financials and Nasdaq Lead the Close

As lunch ended the Nasdaq and the Financials kicked in and started to lead the Market higher.

The Dow closed at 12548.35, up 68.72 points. Oil was down $3.44pb at 4pm EST.

But as the dollar maintains low levels, you will probably see oil climb through the summer months.
Economic growth might be positive the rest of the year. And without 2 negative quarters of growth, it is hard to call it a recession. Let's set the "R" word aside, if oil stays between $125pb and $150pb, our economy could dwindle to a stand still even if th interest rates stay steady for the next 6 months.

It sounds as if the old St.Louis favorite, ticker symbol BUD, doesn't have much defense if the a buyout was forced by InBev. After being up 7% last week, it was up again today .25%.

Keep an eye on the IYR if it hits $71, you might see some room for gains in the $65 Put Options.
It looks as if it will try to test the $60 level again. Also, depressed asset are starting to be bought, and therefore being recognized as depressed assets in real dollars.

DRYS hit $84.80 today and sure looks like a buy from where we are sitting.

Gold dropped today again. With inflation heading North, we see a buying opportunity at around $880 per ounce.

Keep an eye on the Vix, it hit a high over 20 today, yet closed at 19.64. This was the first time in about 30 days it reached that level.

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!

5-27-2008 $Market LunchBox$DRYS Bounce to 120?

The Dow has been back and forth from 50 points up and 20 points down today. Currently (1:50pm EST) the Market is up 22 points at 12,501 on the Dow.

Layoffs are big and in every inch of the news. Generally speaking this happens at Market bottoms, not Market tops. This might be an indicator, since the Investment Banking firms can provide steady indication.

LDK Solar is taking a breather today right along with oil, who is down $2.50 to 129. 69pb. Oil is showing great support at $125pb. Buy the dips in energy and shipping is probably the right thing to do here.

Watch DRYS bounce back North after on future profits and a low PE under 6.

It is a slow day today, with not a lot of news out to move the Markets. Gold is down today also.

Home prices fell the most in 20yrs. It is going to get through September. Homebuilders with possibly the exception of Toll Brothers, are in trouble and showing considerable weakness.

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com

5-27-2008 $PreMarket Buzz$ LIBOR in Question?

As the pressure mounts in the US Banking system, so does it start to climb in London. Interest rates on corporate bonds, leveraged buyouts loans, derivatives and even U.S. mortgages are pegged to the Libor rate. After UBS was quoted saying (post 38billion in write downs) that it could get better rates than that of the other banks with less write downs. This difference and others have lead to a lack of confidence in the 24 year old system of setting rates.
To resolve this issue, the British Bankers' Assoc. is looking into ways solve the problem and will offer information regarding a solution on May 30th, 2008. What they offer, may give us a clue to how long the credit crisis might last.

Asia had its first up day in 6 days yesterday. This might be something to watch. If you are considering buying anything Asian (equities), you might take a look now. The tide might be shifting.

New Home Sales numbers and Consumer Confidence numbers will come out on Tuesday morning, along with the Richmond Fed Index(all at 10am EST).

Thursday will give us Jobless Claims report and will probably offer the some of the largest fundamental movement this week.

This weeks economic calendar.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html

With 17 min. to open, Dow futures are up 18, with oil down .85 cents to $131.34pb.


Hoping your weekend was cheap on gas.....

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!

15 years and the Future Web Curve-Will the Oil Market Push People to the Web?

The Internet is celebrating 15 years of adaptation and growth

I am reading this article by some of the most experienced Internet types in the world, and the futuristic views they have for the Internet.

In thinking about your next software or Internet stock trade or investment, you might want to understand these people and their views about the overall direction of the Internet.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/7373717.stm

Good Fortune from Trade Equity!!!

12300 Correction /Market Closer

The Dow closed at 12479.63 today. Todays drop was only a 145.99 points. Am I crazy or does it see like this elevator is taking the fast shaft down? If so, is it slowing down. We had a couple days of 200+ down now today, only 146 points.

We think we might see the basement around 12300 due to the fact this will represent the 50% correction from the recent highs.

This is not new news, but there might be a trade here.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=arJRg6BLyYl8&refer=home

Bloomberg reports the following:

Vallejo became the largest California city to seek bankruptcy protection a week after it rejected an offer by labor unions for $10 million in pay cuts.

This is probably the tip of the iceberg for California. They have laws dictating your property taxes be lowered if your value has dropped X %. This sounds great for the homeowners, but must be putting a crunch on local governments.

Dow Jones Transportation Index has risen with the Oil Services Index, together they are up 17% and 16% percent YTD. Oil finished up today to $1.38 to $132.19p.b.. Please remember to look at DRYS this weekend, it has had a pullback following an earnings report where they missed by 4 cents.

LDK was up today again, over 8%.

Next week will probably be both short and light on volume.

Good Fortune from Trade Equity!!!

Market LunchBox

With the Dow currently down 150.55 to 12,475, we are witnessing the Friday sell off that we talked about yesterday.

After bad housing news this morning, the market went into freefall.
Resales of U.S. houses and condos dropped 1% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.89 million from 4.94 million in March. Economists expected sales to fall to 4.83 million.


We are looking for the Dow to correct to 12300 and then head North back to 13000 or 13500.

Today is a very light volume day in the Markets.

BUD is up 7% today on a buyout rumour by InBev.
A merger of the two companies would result in production of about 350 million hectoliters of beer each year and add up to approximately $20 billion in annual revenue.

Gold and oil are up today.

Gold is up $6.50 and oil is up to $132.10 p.b..

This is todays global economic calendar.

http://www.forexfactory.com/

Good Fortune from Trade Equity!!!

PreMarket Buzz

Kimberly Clark announced they would raise there price 6-8%. This is inflation at its best.

The Dow Futures are showing an opening of 46 points lower.

Yahoo is delaying its annual meeting once again. While the stock is down this week, it looks as if Microsoft is looking around for something other than Yahoo now.

Euro-zone May purchasing managers index falls to lowest level in five years. This shows that the global slow down in is happening across the world.

The existent home sales numbers are released this morning at 10am EST.
These numbers cannot be great. But most everyone knows this.

There are a few companies reporting earnings today.

http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/today.html

Good Fortune from Trade Equity!!!

Market Closer

The Dow closed today, after digesting the Natural Gas report and the Jobless claims report, at 12,625.62, up 24.43.

This is a good sign to see the Dow close above 12600. Tomorrow will be pretty calm with the VIX at 18.05. But do not forget it is Friday and there probably won't be too many traders that want to keep open positions over a 3 day weekend.


The Gap and Footlocker beat analyst estimates on earnings after close today. Both stocks were up in after hour trading.

Watch the SKF next week.

You can see here that tomorrow is not a big news day.....

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html

Good Fortune from Trade Equity!!!

Market Lunch

After opening this morning to be over 50 points up on the Down, the market then sold off and went to even. Currently, are drifting North to 31 points up on the Dow.

Ford is a loser today, based on the fact the will not be profitable as soon as they thought while trying to sell large trucks and SUVs, instead of small and hybrid cars.

One of the smartest guys on Wall Street is Bill Gross of Pimco. Today he made some interesting statements.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=axXH0Xr98tDw&refer=home

Oil is pulling back right now, it is down $1.20 p.b. to $132.

Earnings after the close are here:

http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/today.html

The DBA(commodity ETF) is down today and there is not a lot of news out that is moving the Marketplace.

Gold is down $9.50, but not where we like it yet to get in.

Good Fortune from Trade Equity!!!

PreMarket Buzz

Crude oil in the last 12 hours of trading to over $135 p.b..
Oil is up 19% and outside of OPEC rising production or demand lessening, there is no Easy button to push.

Most traders are wondering how close to $200 p.b.. we will get before the numbers begin to turn around.

First-time jobless claims fell 9,000 to 365,000, from a revised 374,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said today. The total number of people collecting benefits was unchanged at a four-year high of 3.073 million for the week ended May 10.

Existing home sales numbers come out tomorrow. This is an important number and could move the market this time.

If you are like us, and like to invest in the shipping industry, you will enjoy knowing the Baltic Dry Index, as of Tuesday, the index hit 11,793, and companies such as Eagle Bulk and Dryships, are showing incredible gains.

A lot of the gain is due to the fact that China has to keep up with coal and iron ore.

The Mexican Stock exchange is ready to go public in June.
Bolsa Mexicana de Valores, or BMV, mentioned in a preliminary prospectus released Wednesday that it plans for 121 million shares to be sold in Mexico and for 158 million shares, are going to be sold in the U.S.

Watch the SKF today, it looks like broker related stocks are going to fall today.

Good Fortune from Trade Equity!!!

Market Closer

The Dow closed down 227 points to 12,601.19.

As oil hit 135p.b. around the world, Asia started to feel the heat of the higher price.

And while Iceland's central bank may raise its benchmark interest rate today for the third time this year, certain countries are seriously watching the pressure, oil and other inflationary "add ons" might have on their economy.

Stagflation is the word that keeps rearing its ugly head.

As defined by Wiki:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation

One of the most popular tools used in portfolio management today are ETFs.
Some of the ETFs available are constructed to return more than others.
Here is a great article on several of the more leveraged opportunities in ETFs.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/proposed-etfs-would-magnify-stock/story.aspx?guid=%7B3D68AF7C%2DCCBF%2D494A%2D84BC%2D9E367BFA8134%7D



http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSTKU00329320080522


Good Fortune from Trade Equity!!!

Market LunchBox

The Dow started a back and forth pattern this morning, but Fed Minutes combined with oil coming in 5 million barrels short on the crude report drove oil above $133 p.b. and drove the Dow to 225 points down.

The Dow has currently bounced back to 202 down.

The Fed said today that they would not lower interest rates further unless the market conditions fell off the cliff. They also said that they see worse times due to unemployment, and inflation.

The VIX was up today over 5% to above 18.

We are watching and own NIHD, VMW, LDK, OSK, DBA, and SDTH.

LDK is the star performer today and yesterday. We look for this stock to hit 60+ before September.

Oil is up currently 4.57 to $133+. On CNBC today, there are people on their that are saying the oil demand will not slow growth dramatically. That is hard to believe.
We see technology reap the benefit of people slowing down on transportation, and doing more and more work, buying, and all other activites online. The popularity of the gaming community right now is a precursor to the ability society has to embrace online activity.

Good Fortune from Trade Equity!!!

PreMarket Buzz

9:08 EST

Dow Futures are showing an opening of 11 points down on the Dow.

This morning we will have Crude Oil inventories out. It will be interesting to see of the equities move at this tipping point.

Obama looks like the candidate of choice and you might start seeing some industries(healthcare and defence come to mind) start to possibly show strength or weakness depending on the news.

Germany posted a confident report this morning regarding their economy. The German economy is in rough shape currently.

Gold is showing a $1.90 drop right now. If Gold pulls back to 875 per ounce, we consider it a buy due to inflation showing in government numbers around the world.

With sales of PCs rising around the world as many third world countries com online, Hewlett-Packard reported 16% rise in quarterly profit. Keep an eye on the Computer stocks today. 16% is a number that might get things move in this sector.

Good Fortune from Trade Equity!!!

Market Closer

The Dow closed 199 points down to 12828.

The big question on our mind today is (after how close will we get to 13500 on the Dow first) what is going to be the catalyst to turn the Market around to trend down?

There are a few catalyst that can step up to the plate and hit a homerun in the area.

1. Oil can do it, when the price of oil starts to effect earnings of companies other than Fedex. When you see the grocery stocks start to lose their slim margins, due to their delivery cost, might constitute enough pressure to send the Dow to the basement. level of 12500.

2. Inflation, as we saw it today, can be a driver for the downward spiral.
The consumer is being pinched right now and the bank accounts that were held in the home of the foreclosed and will-be-foreclosed are not accessible as they were in years prior. So, we are watching these numbers closely. We don't have a lot of faith in the housing plan that is being presented to President Bush currently.

3. Jobs, or the lack thereof, remain an important factor. If you watch prices rise, the residential bank account go, and employment hunting become an Olympic sport, the US economy can be crushed.

There are other factors for sure, but these 3 elements are key areas to keep an eye on.

After the bell today Hewlett Packard and may help the Tech sector see daylight tomorrow. (HPQ)

Oil finished up over $2 today to above $129 p.b..

Gold was up over $13 per ounce.


Warren Buffet, George Soros, and Meredith Whitney from Oppenheimer, are in the same boat whn it come to believing the Credit Crunch is not over. Buffet, the realist, and Soros, the skeptic met Whitney at the crossroads.

In the MarketWatch pages, Whitney is quoted as saying,

Oppenheimer warns of billions of dollars of additional asset write-downs and loan-loss reserves as a result of underwriting excesses. "We estimate that by the end of 2009, over $170 billion of reserve builds will flow through bank earnings on top of 'business as usual' loan-loss provisions," Whitney wrote. "Multitrillion dollars of loans were underwritten with the false assumption that home prices would go up in perpetuity on a national basis," the analyst said

The rest of the article can be found here>>>





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The financial sector -- which comprises 16.5% of the S&P 500 -- acted as the biggest drag with a 2.2% loss.

Market LunchBox

1:30 EST

As the Dow comes off of its low of over 200 points down on the day, the Market is showing strength in the area of energy, again. Oil is up over 2 dollars p.b., to over 129 p.b..

Gold is up today also. And so is the DBA.

If you missed it today, Boone Pickens did mention that he sees oil at 150 p.b. and he bought 10 million shares of YHOO after Icahn got in deep. Can you say, one specie of whale swimming with another specie of whale?

(HPQ) Hewlett Packard reports earnings after close today, and should give us some insight to business IT spending. Currently, HPQ is off 25 cents to $46.46 per share.

Meredith Whitney is hammering the financials again with what will probably be very realistic predictions into JP Morgan and Citigroup.

Steel looks to be taking a breather with a few companies showing a little weakness today. Depending on your portfolio, this might create an opportunity to jump in.

Good Fortune from Trade Equity!!!

PreMarket Buzz

The Dow Futures are showing down 91 to 12954, and Oil is up 73 cents to $127.78.

Home Depot reported a 66% loss in income with what we think will be 4-6 more months of increased foreclosure exposure.

China is going to relocate 12 million due further danger and disease.



Producer prices were announced this morning and the numbers showed the highest inflation in core prices in 17 years.

The dollar slipped against the euro in trading overnight.

Busy day today on the economic calendar.



Good Fortune from Trade Equity!!!

Market Closer

As oil hit an all time high today, the Market shaved off the overall rally du jour.

Registering a high of 13132 today and then heading South between 230EST and the close.

The VIX closed up 3.28% today to 17.01.

Are we seeing the same pattern we saw in late 2007?

The late day sell off. Possibly, but here is the difference. This time around we have 2 major differences.

1. We have light volume compared to the 3rd and the 4th quarter of last year.

and

2. We are coming off the one of the darkest period Wall Street has seen in the last 50 years.

We think that the Dow will pull back when it hit the 13500-13800 marker on the Dow.
Where will it pull back to? Well that is anyones guess. What will be the catalyst that will initiate the pull back?

The catalyst could be oil, it could be the dollar, or it could be inflation.

There are trades that are setting up right now, concerning the 13500-13800 level on the Dow.

Keep an eye on the the currencies or the Rydex currency shares to give you a true hint of when these trades might start to unwind.

Follow these symbols, FXA, FXB, FXC, FXE, FXY, FXM, FXF, FXS.

We like NIHD in Latin America.



The also have on options on these currencyshares.

Google entered the health market today.

What a great company. Probably the company that will look more like a world government for the internet in 5-10 years. But I have one issue. Too much too fast in the direction of private information. They want your health records.
I want someone to tell me why this is a good idea. Please honestly, tell me one reason why anyone would want to relinguish their health records to Google. I am ready to learn the reason an individual would be involved in this, at anytime.

Emerging markets are seeing a lot of attention in the last few days. MSCI earnings have quadrupled in the last 5 years. Countries such as Brazil, Russia, Taiwan, and South Africa look as if they are decoupling from the US Market.

Good Fortune from Trade Equity!!!