Mondays Market......Its Not Nap Time!

Oil was down 21cents to close at $140.00 even.

Gold was down $3.00 to $928.30.

Dow was up 3.5 points top 11,350.01.

Don't forget that this week only has 4 trading days.

Today was sluggish by any definition. Up over 85 points by 11:30EST, the Market started to tail off with one last attempt to pass 11400 between 2:15 and 3:30EST.

With the fact that trading will not be taking place on Friday due to the July 4th holiday, we could see (Wednesday probably do to news) some major movement, we believe to the downside. It could start downward on Tuesday and then pick up momentum on Wednesday.

That is if oil hangs tough around $140 per barrel. If it sells off for some reason we might see the Dow drift north without conviction like it did for the first few hours of today.

Stocks that we are into that did well today are GMCR,IPI,MER. But we look for more downside action from the IYR.

Inflation is still on and will not be assisted by unemployment later this week. Gold(GLD) should perform well until Bernanke steps in.

Look for the EU to raise rates this week, and crush the dollar further.

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!

Lock In....Get Ready For Dow Ski Slope 10500

Dow down 106.91 points to 11346.51

Gold up to $931.3po. Up $16.20 today.

Oil(CLQ8) set a new record again today. The high was 142.99. It closed at 140.21,
up .57c.

http://tiny.cc/3s1YV

Look for the Dow to fall hard either Monday or Tuesday. Possibly another 300-400 day depending on earnings and other fundamentals that might come out.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html


Monday is a slow day for economic news, but look for the banks or the investment banks to issue some type of market moving news about capital raising. Possibly (MER)
Merrill.

Already the bond insurer MBIA is in trouble as their rating is at jeopardy with Moodys.

And late today the news broke that on CNBC that said "Moody's Investors Service warned it is likely to cut its credit ratings on Morgan Stanley, saying the U.S. investment bank has made expensive trading mishaps and it's unclear if it can improve its risk management."
That was right after the XLF hit a 52 week low and people were just starting to question the standing of JPM.

Below tells you why Gold is hot right now.




Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!

Elevator Down to Basement -358 Dow

Dow was down today, 358.41 points to 11,453.42.

Oil(CL08Q) was up $5.09 to $139.64

Gold was up today, +32.80 (+3.72%) to $915.10.

Every sector was down today with the Financials right there on top of the losers.


We are headed south with BUD in the fight of their life, because the Belgians are coming on strong. This could be a fast dance to the finish.

With oil hitting a record high today, our economy is going to be constricted unless the Fed steps in with either a rate hike for interest rates or what they did in 2001 with currency intervention. The were on the market buying dollars. If they did it again, they would need to coordinate this action with other govs to make this really work. Their rhetoric worked 10 days ago, but the dollar was trending North when they shot it out. Now our Dollar once again is headed down.

We might bounce up on the open tomorrow and depending how high we bounce, it might be a selling opportunity in GMCR, QID, or SDS.

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!

Buying Op for 3-6 Months

Oil (CLQ8)finished $2.57 down today to $134.52pb.

Dow finished at 11814.35. Up 6.92 points on the session.

Gold closed at 887.50, down $4.10 today.


http://us.ft.com/ftgateway/superpage.ft?news_id=fto062520081552256842&referrer_id=yahoofinance

The Fed failed to raise rates today. This should lead to higher commodities/agriculture pricing and Monsanto just reported record numbers and watched their shares drop.

Less than teen spirit, this smells like a bargain.

The whole sector has been out performing for the last year and should continue to do so for the next 3-6 months.

The financials are just starting to deal with lawsuits brought on by the Subprime mess.

We should see them drop further also in the next 3-6 months along with commercial real estate the closer we get to a rise in interest rates.

GMCR is starting to look very weak today. The puts for the July 35 are still cheap, if you think we are going to see a quick slide in the next 3 weeks.

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!

No Change Down,,,,,,Some Change Down>>> 11500 Dow

This was interesting. Mccain views on alternative fuels, talked about on CNBC.
Investments for new technology to stop our dependency on foreign oil.
Tax Incentives on new tech and the consumer end is needed to change habits on the US.









The thing most likely to rally if there is no change tomorrow, could be the Financials.

If there is no change, inflation will continue grow, and you might see commodities rise and stocks go down.

http://www.forexfactory.com/
index.php?s=f748727ea35fd1342b270aaa5f87fdf4&tomorrow=1

IPI took some off some 6.86% after a great run from $49 to $76 in 3-4 weeks.

Keep an eye on GMCR...it looks like it is headed South.

I look for the whole market to break down over the next 1-2 weeks.

The IYR is falling to pieces right now and will probably see new lows in the area of $55 per share. Commercial Real Estate has another year to feel the real pain.

http://finance.google.com/finance?chdnp=0&chdd=0&chds=0&chdv=1&chvs=Linear&chdeh=0&chdet=1214340093250&chddm=1955&q=NYSE:IYR&

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com

Calm Before The Storm-June23rd

Oil was up to $136.74/today +$1.38

Gold was down to $887.20/today -$16.50

Dow was down .33 to 11842.36 today

The Market is waiting for Bernanke to unveil his Fed Funds rate plan for the future.

I expect tomorrow to be semi quiet also.

BTW...the next time you think Saudi...think of wrong kind of oil, and not enough of it. Sour not Sweet Crude is what is produced in the Middle East. So, once again, it looks like in another dire circumstance, we are running short on bullets when it comes to market intervention and possible relief from the thumb of pricing pressures we have allowed ourselves to become subject to.

Merrill is trying to raise capital by selling assets. One of their assets for sale might be BlackRock. Right now they own part of BlackRock and have a Asset Management agreement with BlackRock. So if the sales does happen, the fallout should be interesting. This could also effect the overall rating of Merrill and its ability to raise future capital. BlackRock is supposed to be worth $12Billion.

Watch the catalyst------------

1. Oil- driving inflation and specifically higher commodity prices

2. September/October Foreclosures peak- taking the cash out of the pockets of homeowners on a nationwide basis.

3. Interest Rates- rising over the next year to fight inflation and prolong the agony in the housing market.

4. Jobs/Unemployment- heading for a bad relationship between the two, as we head into a possible new President with a less than stellar vision of how to spur new growth in a time of economic crisis.

I think we have a clear picture of what direction the Market is going and why. Not to say that we won't have times when light creeps through the window and sparks a bull rally.

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!

Saudi Meeting Might Assist With Oil

There is a meeting this weekend between the Saudis and the government and business leaders.

The outcome of this meeting could lead to lower oil prices in the future. Along with the fact that the government of China decided to repeal subsidies for gas and diesel this week 15-18%, we can clearly see global governments recognizing the toll high oil is bringing to global commerce.

http://tiny.cc/iPshj

Until the Bernanke Showdown

Today:

Oil was up

Gold was up

Dollar was down

Dow was down 130+

Options expire on Friday, so keep an eye on oil possibly going up.

This is a good video on oil supply/demand.




Today we touched then bounced off of 12000 on the Dow. This was a test of the 3 month lows. There were people on CNBC speaking about 10500 on the Dow. That was the first time I heard anyone talk about any marker under 11000 on the Dow.


Thursday and Friday brings us some fundamentals from the

reports concerning the Unemployment Claims and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html


I think we could see 10750 in the coming months. We might bounce up to 12100 or 12300 on the way down, on news of a "write up" instead of a write down or some other unexpected good news in the financials or the equivalent.

IPI is still working but may pull back in the next day or two. This could create a buying opportunity for IPI.

Bernanke talks on the 24th. It looks as if there is no way of an interest rate hike.
Watch the GLD ETF if/when Bernanke does not raise the Fed Funds Rate.

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!

Goldman Sachs Earnings Before The Bell--Sovereign Wealth

http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20080617.html

Morgan Stanley reports on Thursday.

Barclays is saying it might need to raise $8 Billion by selling stock to sovereign wealth funds. It seems as if these funds are the debt/equity dumping grounds of 2008.
I would like to see an estimate of how long our global financial models would be stuck in the mud if they were not able to sell their soul to sovereign wealth funds.

And while we are on the topic, why doesn't the government facing the largest social/financial crisis in the world, have a sovereign wealth fund?

The US is so short on meeting its obligations currently, this might be a way(outside of raising taxes) to shore up the balance sheet.

This should be a great week with fundamentals moving the Market.

It seems as if the markets want to move North, and therefore they might digest bad news in a "less than dire" manner.

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!

CME Sees Gov Approval, LDK, IPI, and DRYS Rise

May the King Justice help the CME?

http://tiny.cc/70Fhz

The stock has been hammered the last 2 months, this might possibly give rise to an up ward trend. There is plenty of room to rise vs. earnings.

The charts are showing good stuff at IPI and LDK. Wait for the IPI pullback to buy though. Potash is supposed to see 200% gains in the next 2 years and they won't do that and leave IPI behind. Keep in mind they have all seen a nice run up currently.

LDK looks great and on target to hit our 55 target buy September, if oil doesn't go to 80 per barrel.

DRYS is bouncing but the technicals look like a head and shoulders pattern. So if you enter, consider a pure short term trade. 93 is solid resistance, and might be considered as an exit.

CNBC is talking about the FEDs possible or not so possible rate hike. The Saudis are talking about raising oil production by 500k barrels next month. Keeping in mind this is an election year and a potential increase of rates, could topple the market and that could be blamed on Republicans in the November election. So, Paulson and Bernanke are being labeled as "cheap talk" on Fast Money. I think this is what we were talking last week.

Blah-Hoogle Well Defined

http://tiny.cc/n1tq3

This link takes you to the NYTimes article on Jerry Yang, shareholders, and the starts to foreshadow the upcoming story that might unwind in favor of the shareholder.

We were wrong--6 Trading Days of Potential Bull

We may not test 11700 just yet. If Lehman Brothers can pull off a sale or raise money to survive, they may lead the financials out of the woods at least until earnings show with either positive or negative effects. Lehman lead the financials higher today.

The street is fearing that Goldman may have something unexpected on earnings.

On the 24th Bernanke will speak. From the close today, we could have a short term bull run til the 24th.

What a finish today!

Up 165 points on the Dow.

Oil down about $2 per barrel, while Comex GOLD August closed $1.10 higher.

LDK announced a 5 year contract and bounced up 7.15% today.

IPI was very strong today also. This stock was up 3.72% today, and up in a huge way this week.

DRYS was down over $20(from $93 to $73) per share the last 7 trading days and had a
nice bounce today, up 3.38% today.

Barring any oil mishaps this weekend, such as a pending strike in Nigeria or a hurricane, equities could have a nice short term run and if Bernanke does the what the market wants, there is room for the Dow to move further up at this point.

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!

Sell Side Friday

Kudlow is putting them to the test here.


Without the big run up this week and closing stronger on the last half hour of the trading session, it might be hard to believe that tomorrow(Friday) has the opportunity to take us closer to the 11700 lows on the Dow.

The CPI numbers come out 830am EST tomorrow. This could set the tone for the day and structure a sell off all by itself.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ajgfmr4PRbxQ&refer=home


The game is on as the Dollar makes gains this week, while the Markets drive the idea that the Fed should not raise rates at this time. The cost of borrowing needs to stay cheap so the Market can have a proper rebound. One that is not structured by the government givings in the form of stimuli packages and corporate buy outs.

If the Fed raises the rate, we might see 11000 on the Dow from 2006.

It wasn't that long ago, but this trip seems like it is taking forever!

Why Gold?

This chart shouts buy!

GLD now has options. Bernanke might not bluff, but he might raise 25 basis points. GLD might still work. We think he will bluff on the stronger dollar is happening.
The Plunge Protection Team is talking tough, but that is all they have.
If it dips below 850 per ounce would exit.

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!

GLD---SDS---IPI---Hot Hot Hot

Cramer wants to tell us daily that there is "Bull Market Somewhere".

Well, with the global economy the way it is, this elusive Bull Market is a little harder to find.

There are a few sectors that are moving like fertilizer, but some of them have shown such large gains in the last year I would have to be very careful that they aren't toast on their P/E.

3 trades we do like right now are GLD, IPI, and the SDS.

GLD will work until Bernanke speaks possibly longer depending on what he says.

IPI along with the Fertilizer Sector is on fire right now. This is an agriculture play and with the Midwest under water, this might work for sometime like last year.

The SDS is the Ultrashort S&P ETF. This is waiting for the capitulation bottom that will ultimately happen on day in the future. We are watching 11700 on the Dow.

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!

No News is Bad News

The Dow closed up 9.44 points today.

Crude dropped today by more than $3 pb today.

Some sectors were getting dropped like a rock today. Solar and Shipping were 2 of them.

After hitting the their 52 week low, the Financials spiked up today.


There is not a lot of news coming out in the next 24 hours to drive the Market in one direction or another. Much like the last 2 days, we will probably just float back and forth. Unless of course, Crude Oil inventories are way off of their estimates.

On Thursday, we will see the Unemployment Numbers, Retail Numbers, and Business Inventory Numbers.

Watch the 8:30am EST release of the CPI Numbers on Friday morning. This could move the Market dramatically.

Cross your fingers that this does not continue to happen just because the Dollar is
a 3 month high. Make the defensive trade tomorrow!

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!

Makret Closer---The New US Energy Policy

Let's take a look at the Big 3 indicators:

Oil pulled back today after a record run on Friday, and large gains on Thursday.
(Think is it going up tomorrow and in the near future?...We do)


The Dollar was up today on Paulson "speak"(talk is cheap and does not last along time usually. Although, they seemed real concerned!)

Dow Futures for Tuesday. 12:10 AM they are showing -49 on the Dow @ open.


--------------------------------------------------------

The "New US Energy Policy" is what we are facing just weeks before the June 24th FOMC announcement by Mr.Bernanke. If this were a gunfight, Bernanke would scream..."I am almost out of bullets, and Treasury Secretary Paulson would yell back, "Intervention is never off the table".

Paulson said that today, and Bernanke has to be thinking over his lines for the 24th.

If the Fed keeps rates the same for the next 6 months, interest rates might drift North from where they are knowing that sooner or later they will have to raise the rate to combat inflation. Depending on where we are in the cycle and the amount of recovery that has actually taken place in the credit markets, higher rates could impede US profits.

The chances are very slim, but what would happen if the Fed lowered rates?
This would help equities and will probably give oil the boost to $150 or 200 per barrel.

Bernanke has to give the "stimuli" package a chance to work(which we think we have seen the results of the stimuli package in the WalMart report last week. They cashed 350+ Million in Gov checks)Excuse me while I get a bucket, I think I am sick with the idea that this will have anything to do with this economic recovery.

In the meantime, the Stock Market is going to tell the Fed(between now and then, how bad things are and whatever the Fed decides to do, it should assist the Stock Market)
that they need to be subsidized by lowering rates or other assistance. But this is going to fall on def ears while the Market tanks either right above or below current lows(watch 11700).

Stuck between a rock and a Market is where the Fed is now. And the legislative Branch knows it. You can follow this soap opera on almost any financial channel.
In the next year, you will see several proposals to legislate the Financial Industry to death. This might be the real catalyst for change that leads to lower levels on the Dow in the coming years. The Financials have put themselves on the chopping block and may pay a hefty price for it. Since they lead the Market in good times and bad, we may be watching a fallen leader go in hiatus for some time.

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!

$Market Closer$ 394 Points Down>8th largest Drop

394 Points Down.........that is one long elevator shaft.

This was what we have been waiting for while CNBC picks up their cheerleading outfits from the dry cleaners!

Was it the jobs report, that was by JP Morgans account, misunderstood by the entire Market? Or was it the fact that the Israeli sabre rattling had oil triggering Limit Up shortly after Heating Oil went Limit Up.

The USO, SKF, and the SDS, were all on fire for the ETF corner.

The commodity trend is looking very good right now....watch the DBA.

This feels like last year all over again with the help of unemployment, and no equity left in the residential sector. Yet we do know that the Fed will bail out if needed. And while it looks as if they will surely be tested in the next 3 weeks(June 24th) until the Bernanke rate talk, it looks as if holding rates steady, might not be exactly what the Market is wanting to hear.

The Investment Banks are facing new legislation governing their practices, which will surely have unintended profit constrictions(outside of the constrictions caused by higher interest rates).

The term "Lame Duck" doesn't really mean that we have to eat from the duck that will be served to us in the next election does it?

This trickle down to a possible Dow of 11700 is starting to feel like an old pair of blue jeans.

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!

Are They Joking? $500 Sweet Crude to You!!!

In imaging I thought this was the issue as a Politician, that I should really throw my weight behind and tackle, here are a couple possible scenario solutions that I see being proposed:

1. Define and Regulate speculation. Try to stop it, so the Gov could provide the liquidity the market would need. Then raise taxes to pay for the "puff"(as in Puff the Magic Dragon) liquidity. .

2. Tax It to Death. Tax the speculators so they wont want to do it any longer. This is a great idea! This way we can see $500 per barrel oil before July 4th, 2009.


Soros is like Zoro. Whatever mask he wants to wear is what he wears that day.
His motivation to appear with these people is beyond comprehension.

We would like to here your best scenario for the US Government manipulation and "intervention" in the Oil Markets.

If yours is chosen as the best possible GOV/Oil Scenario, you will win a gallon of sweet crude that might be worth $500!

$Market Closer$ Head Fake & Trichet Turns Trend!

The Dow closed about 207 up today.

With Gold down on the day and oil up by over $5 pb after Europe(Trichet) announce it might be raising rates.


The US brought the Credit Crisis to the party, and seems to be behind the curve as the music starts. There is a distinct possibility the Trichet might raise interest rates before the US.

This could have a giant effect on oil and the dollar. Oil will go up and the dollar will go down against the Euro, and possibly other currencies.

The word on Lehman is that it might raise $5B. It has already raised $8B from the sale of bonds.

Does anyone feel that the analyst are in bed together? Trade-Equity.com has had this feeling before, but in the last 3 days, it truly seems apparent that they are doing more than scratching each others backs. And as the Feds investigate manipulation in the Energy markets, it would be nice to see them look closer at the analyst that this industry so depend on. The fact that the brokers can recommend to buy another broker reaks of impropriety and should be examined with a fine tooth comb.

Lehman is going to survive. But if they are outside the scope of leverage in todays market compared to their peers, their price should reflect that and not be manipulated by an upgrade my Merril, after Lehman talks up Merril on their performance on their Asia potential. This is a hypothetical scenario, yet it feels like such things are happening in that sector.

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!

$PreMarket Buzz$ Jobless Claims Down....Dow Opening Up

We have been pretty busy the last couple days and unable to blog the way we want to.

After making some changes, we think that we have solved the problem.

Let take a look at the Big 3 with 20 minutes to open this Thursday morning.

Dow Futures: Up 31, 12435

Oil: Up 37 cents, to 122.67

Comex Gold: Down 13.20, to 870.60

Today looks like a day when the commodities might get some relief after 2 days of seeing pressure. Yet miners might continue to fall.

Jobless Claims and Retail number came in better than expected.

WalMart says that they almost doubles their expected sales.


Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!

$Market Closer$ The Dow is Slipping Toward 11700

The Market was quiet today until around 1pm EST. Then the VIX kicked in and we start to move. The morning was 20 up and the 20 down on the Dow. But soon we came to understand the day, that the 50's were it today while heading South.

From open and shooting up to 12554.05 by 10:30am EST. Then passing the 12342.12 mark by 2:30pm EST. And finally touching the 12450 level to finish dramatically in the last 10 minutes of the day at 12402.85. The Dow finishing down 101. We look for it to get darker before we see the sunshine.

The story in our camp today was oil. It started to break down today, finishing the session over $3.30 down on the day.

Check this 3 day chart of the Crude Oil out.

http://charts.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=CBN8&data=Z30&jav=adv&vol=Y&divd=Y&evnt=adv&grid=Y&late=y&code=BSTK&org=stk&fix=

$PreMarket Buzz$ Inflation or Growth from Bernanke?

With 20 minutes to open, the 3 major indicators this morning look like this:

Oil is down to 126.37 down about$1.30 per barrel.

Comex Gold is 887.20, down 9.80.

Dow Futures is up 26 points to 12532.

Bernanke spoke this morning and said thing are better but "conditions remained strained". He signaled that the Fed will keep things the same and not change the Fed funds rate. Bernanke also mentioned that oil might cause growth to slow in the economy, the the commodity prices have to show a total pass through to the consumer, and that the consumer has held better than expected.

He also mentioned that the commercial real estate sector might still see downward effects. If you would like to take advantage of commercial real estate, we like the IYR.

We think that the Market will challenge the Fed to lower rates one more time. Although, the Fed does not feel it this will assist the economy in its recovery.

The market might go up a little this morning and then head South to chase 12300.
Again while certain stock are sitting their support levels, we like the SDS to take advantage of the downward trend of the s&p.

http://www.forexfactory.com/


Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!

$Market Closer$ Hard Close Today

As this blog goes to print, it looks as if the Dow is going to close down today.

With 35 minutes to close, the Dow is down 149 point to 12489.

Oil is at $120.65, up 30 cents pb.

Comex Gold is up to 896, up $4.50 po.

The rumours that the investment banks were spreading to the street, in terms of the rating agencies not knowing and not understanding how to calculate the debt on the investment bank books, are finally catching up to them. This looks like it could be the second major shoe to drop, and it could create a ripple large enough to exhibit the ever talked about "capitulation", that in the end could spark another rally, like we have seen for the last 2 months.

So, as we enter, we exit, only to enter again!

Exit positions or hedge, that is the question. How are your trades holding up right now? These are the questions to ask yourself. Are they defensive(HUM)?

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!

$Market LunchBox$ No Confidence In The Banks!

The banks are falling apart today. The SKF is rallying, while the Dow is off about 180 points to 12458 at 1:15 EST. Wachovia and Washington Mutual are getting rid of their CEOs. We are looking at the next quarter of earnings for Financials, and expect very difficult numbers to digest. People are starting to analyze these numbers to see if the write down might be lessining, but we think they will be surprised.

Oil is up on a rumour on an Israeli website that the US is getting ready to mount a strike on Iran. This could take oil much higher. Oil is currently at 128.23 (up $1.05). This could also cause gold to hit the ceiling.

Equities look like they might be testing the 12300 this week or next, and then we have 11700 as the next major support on the Dow.

Goof Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!

$PreMarket Buzz$ Dow Elevator Going to 12,300?

With 30 minutes to Market open let's take a look at the 3 major indicators:

Dow Futures: 12580 (down 57 points)

GCM8/GOLD June 2008 (COMEX): 888.20 (up .90)

Oil: $126.06pb (down $1.30)

Economic Calendar: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html

On of the most interesting stories out today is the fact that the Euro Banks are being hit hard.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/european-shares-fall-banking-sector-worries/story.aspx?guid=%7B0508ECA5%2DFEA9%2D45E4%2DBB88%2DF238E3D8EAF9%7D

We like the SDS for the trip South in the next several weeks.

Marriot spoke and lowered their US outlook, based on lower trends throughout the US.

Yes, it looks like Tech will fare better than most other stocks. (watch VMW)

But when will the Dow hit 12300?

Will it be when oil takes the profitability of the US Corporations in Q3 or Q4 earnings?

Or possibly when LEH is re-evaluates the Level 3 assets that Einhorn(from Greenlight Capital) wants to talk about?

Here is a clip of Einhorn talking about his book and ALD.

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com