Oil fell today. Down $2.69 to $124.08pb.
Gold rose today to $922.70po. Up $10.40po on the session.
Dow lost ground today to 11,378.02. Down 205.67 points.
As the GDP number and the Jobless Claim numbers failed to impress this morning, the Dow open over 100 points down. By 11:30am it had cut its losses to 65 points down. But in the last hour of trading the Dow lost over 100 points.
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html
By 10am EST 100% of all economic data will be out tomorrow. With the VIX up over 8% today, to 22.94, you can bet the market might be dancing tomorrow.
Tomorrow is a difficult day, depending on how the Market digest the news.
Due to the fact that tomorrow is Friday and people may be liquidating positions prior to the weekend, I would have to say the economic data better be strong or else face the sell off.
Good Fortune from Trade Equity!!!
Thursday, July 31, 2008
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Back On the Trading Floor! Energy and Fertilizer
Big symbolic day today!
Oil is up $4.58pb today to the $126.77pb level..
Gold is down on the session to $912.30po. Down $14.10po today.
Dow is up 186.13 today.
Once in a blue moon, you see what happened today. And you can bet it won't last for long. By that I mean, you won't see the energy field move up and the Dow move up in coordination.
If I had to pick one, I like Energy over the Dow in the long term. We might see the Dow turn around between 11700 and 12100 and head South.
After hours today we heard about Disney posting a profit of $1.28 billion, or 66 cents a share, up from $1.18 billion, or 57 cents a share, a year ago. The market was pleased. ESPN was the hidden gem for Disney(DIS)
Starbucks also reported after the close today. SBUX was down 2.1% to $14.67 after hours.
The fertilizers are on the move again also. This ties in with the energy. KOL seems to be working very well and the 55 Calls look like a slam dunk.
Tomorrows data looks like this---->
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html
This video is about water generating power.
Good Fortune from Trade Equity!!!
Oil is up $4.58pb today to the $126.77pb level..
Gold is down on the session to $912.30po. Down $14.10po today.
Dow is up 186.13 today.
Once in a blue moon, you see what happened today. And you can bet it won't last for long. By that I mean, you won't see the energy field move up and the Dow move up in coordination.
If I had to pick one, I like Energy over the Dow in the long term. We might see the Dow turn around between 11700 and 12100 and head South.
After hours today we heard about Disney posting a profit of $1.28 billion, or 66 cents a share, up from $1.18 billion, or 57 cents a share, a year ago. The market was pleased. ESPN was the hidden gem for Disney(DIS)
Starbucks also reported after the close today. SBUX was down 2.1% to $14.67 after hours.
The fertilizers are on the move again also. This ties in with the energy. KOL seems to be working very well and the 55 Calls look like a slam dunk.
Tomorrows data looks like this---->
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html
This video is about water generating power.
Good Fortune from Trade Equity!!!
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
250 Billion Here and There....Starts To Add Up!
Oil was down today to $124.44pb. Down $3.98 on the session.
Gold closed at $922.80. Down $25.70 on Wednesday.
Dow was up to 11,632.38. Up 29.88 points on Wednesday.
Today was one of the darkest days in US Financial history.
The birth of the Credit Crunch has morphed once again. This time it is not the bail out of an investment banking firm. And it is not a "rebate check" that helps to prop up the US Economy, by way of the Plunge Protection Team.
This time it is Part Deux of the SEC Short Sale Insurance Plan.
Our government is giving the financial future of this country away, day by day, and the next generations to come, will pay for their decisions.
Today the Congress voted to authorize a blank check for the Treasury. This is the first time they have ever authorized a blank check for the Treasury for any reason.
The details are in the URL.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/house-approves-housing-aid-fannie-freddie/story.aspx?guid=%7B5F207F2B%2DEA8D%2D4A56%2D8196%2DF24EE226C3D3%7D
The Senate is expected to pass this and President Bush has said he would not veto this bill.
Not that it matters, but you have to ask, if this was not an election year, would this buck keep getting passed on. Would we see bail out after bail out?
What if one aspect got paid for up front? And we didn't pass the cost on to the next generation? What if Freddie and Fannie did not exist? What if we lived as Europe, money was not so cheap and easy, and we passed our houses down through generations.
Do you think people might learn to save money, due to the fact it would be harder to come by?
We are still looking for the Market downturn between 11700 and 12100.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!
Gold closed at $922.80. Down $25.70 on Wednesday.
Dow was up to 11,632.38. Up 29.88 points on Wednesday.
Today was one of the darkest days in US Financial history.
The birth of the Credit Crunch has morphed once again. This time it is not the bail out of an investment banking firm. And it is not a "rebate check" that helps to prop up the US Economy, by way of the Plunge Protection Team.
This time it is Part Deux of the SEC Short Sale Insurance Plan.
Our government is giving the financial future of this country away, day by day, and the next generations to come, will pay for their decisions.
Today the Congress voted to authorize a blank check for the Treasury. This is the first time they have ever authorized a blank check for the Treasury for any reason.
The details are in the URL.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/house-approves-housing-aid-fannie-freddie/story.aspx?guid=%7B5F207F2B%2DEA8D%2D4A56%2D8196%2DF24EE226C3D3%7D
The Senate is expected to pass this and President Bush has said he would not veto this bill.
Not that it matters, but you have to ask, if this was not an election year, would this buck keep getting passed on. Would we see bail out after bail out?
What if one aspect got paid for up front? And we didn't pass the cost on to the next generation? What if Freddie and Fannie did not exist? What if we lived as Europe, money was not so cheap and easy, and we passed our houses down through generations.
Do you think people might learn to save money, due to the fact it would be harder to come by?
We are still looking for the Market downturn between 11700 and 12100.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Wednesday: An Extention of a Strong Tuesday Finish
Above is a 3 month graph of the Dow.
Oil continued its freefall to $127.95pb. Down $3.09pb on the session.
Gold closed at $948.50po. Down $15.20po on the session.
Dow closed at 11,602.50. Up 135.16 points today.
Commodities down, stocks up. The market digested some pretty rough news today. This leads us to believe that 12100 might be the target for the reversal. The momentum on the upside is good, due to earnings and the rally in the financials. Keep an eye on the XLF as an indicator. If it starts to show a rounded top, beware.
The energy stocks such as MEE(coal), CHK(gas), and OXY(oil) are really starting to give up some ground and becoming affordable for the next energy push North.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!
Monday, July 21, 2008
Rough Tuesday Opening
Oil finished today at $131.04pb. Up $2.16pb on the session.
Gold finished at $963.70po. Up $5.70po today.
Dow closed at 11,467.34. Down 28.99 points.
Today it looked like the Little Red Financial Fire Engine that could, just could not any longer.
It would be very hard for me to believe that the dead cat bounce could only bounce this high. I was truly hoping for a little higher before we cam tumbling down again. If Apple and American Express might have shown decent earnings and or guidance, we might not be facing a difficult open tomorrow. But they did, so we are.
That is not to say that this Bear Market Bull Run is over. I still believe we could go higher then tomorrows opening activity. Be patient. There still might be room on the top to grab a better short position depending on how we close tomorrow.
Oil is on the move though. And that might help to kill the party before we get to 12100 or even 11700. Thanks to Iran and the hurricane Dolly, the "black gold" is starting to head North once again.
While searching for profits...........I found a little bit of CNBC humor. Don't just laugh at corporate earnings, check this video out! Behind the scenes look at CNBC.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!
Gold finished at $963.70po. Up $5.70po today.
Dow closed at 11,467.34. Down 28.99 points.
Today it looked like the Little Red Financial Fire Engine that could, just could not any longer.
It would be very hard for me to believe that the dead cat bounce could only bounce this high. I was truly hoping for a little higher before we cam tumbling down again. If Apple and American Express might have shown decent earnings and or guidance, we might not be facing a difficult open tomorrow. But they did, so we are.
That is not to say that this Bear Market Bull Run is over. I still believe we could go higher then tomorrows opening activity. Be patient. There still might be room on the top to grab a better short position depending on how we close tomorrow.
Oil is on the move though. And that might help to kill the party before we get to 12100 or even 11700. Thanks to Iran and the hurricane Dolly, the "black gold" is starting to head North once again.
While searching for profits...........I found a little bit of CNBC humor. Don't just laugh at corporate earnings, check this video out! Behind the scenes look at CNBC.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Friday Opening Down...Looks Like It
Oil closed today at $129.29. Down $5.31 on the session.
Gold closed at $970.70. Up $8.00 on the day.
Dow closed up to 11,446.66. Up today 207.38 points.
After hours today, Merrill, Microsoft, and Google disappointed with earnings and/or guidance.
This should make for a rocky open tomorrow and being Friday, it could make for a break even close by the end of the day.
If earnings do not totally continue to disappoint, we might extend this short term rally to either 11700 or even possibly 12100. Then head back South after hitting these points of resistance.
We might see more of this in this in the coming year. This is people trying to get their money out of Indy Mac Bank.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!
Gold closed at $970.70. Up $8.00 on the day.
Dow closed up to 11,446.66. Up today 207.38 points.
After hours today, Merrill, Microsoft, and Google disappointed with earnings and/or guidance.
This should make for a rocky open tomorrow and being Friday, it could make for a break even close by the end of the day.
If earnings do not totally continue to disappoint, we might extend this short term rally to either 11700 or even possibly 12100. Then head back South after hitting these points of resistance.
We might see more of this in this in the coming year. This is people trying to get their money out of Indy Mac Bank.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Thursday Market Open
Wednesdays Close looked like this:
Oil closed down today to $134.60pb. Down a total of $4.14.
Gold closed down today to $962.70pb. Down a total of $16.00.
Dow closed at 11,239.28 today. Up 276.74 points.
Thursdays Market open will probably be to the up side unless fundamentals change overnight in the areas of oil or earnings.
This Short Term Rally might take us to Dow 11400 or 11700, so please don't go too long too fast and feel comfortable.
Keep an eye on the USO and watch the key support levels of 110, 100, and 95. Today it closed below 110 @ 109.25. So if it continues to break, 100 will be the next level to keep any eye on.
Can anyone tell me how the Financials intend to make any money with new legislation pending that will regulate them to fractional earnings? No doubt they will find a way to make earnings happen, but not in the first 1-2 years of coming out of the credit crunch.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!
Oil closed down today to $134.60pb. Down a total of $4.14.
Gold closed down today to $962.70pb. Down a total of $16.00.
Dow closed at 11,239.28 today. Up 276.74 points.
Thursdays Market open will probably be to the up side unless fundamentals change overnight in the areas of oil or earnings.
This Short Term Rally might take us to Dow 11400 or 11700, so please don't go too long too fast and feel comfortable.
Keep an eye on the USO and watch the key support levels of 110, 100, and 95. Today it closed below 110 @ 109.25. So if it continues to break, 100 will be the next level to keep any eye on.
Can anyone tell me how the Financials intend to make any money with new legislation pending that will regulate them to fractional earnings? No doubt they will find a way to make earnings happen, but not in the first 1-2 years of coming out of the credit crunch.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!
Friends of the Fed and Hank Paulson(Senate Hearing Video)
Things keep getting better with the "Blank Check" Crowd.
The first thing we hear is....some institutions are not too big to fail.
Now this action says that certain companies can be saved and our gov officials will say who gets saved and who does not.
http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2008/2008-143.htm
The SEC has issued a list of companies that have been identified by the commission.
" Washington, D.C., July 15, 2008 - The Securities and Exchange Commission today issued an emergency order to enhance investor protections against "naked" short selling in the securities of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and primary dealers at commercial and investment banks."
This is a 2 hour video of the hearings where Paulson and Bernanke speak out about why the GOV should give them a "Blank Check"
The securities identified in the Commission's order:
Company Ticker Symbol(s)
BNP Paribas Securities Corp. BNPQF or BNPQY
Bank of America Corporation BAC
Barclays PLC BCS
Citigroup Inc. C
Credit Suisse Group CS
Daiwa Securities Group Inc. DSECY
Deutsche Bank Group AG DB
Allianz SE AZ
Goldman, Sachs Group Inc GS
Royal Bank ADS RBS
HSBC Holdings PLC ADS HBC and HSI
J. P. Morgan Chase & Co. JPM
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. LEH
Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. MER
Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. MFG
Morgan Stanley MS
UBS AG UBS
Freddie Mac FRE
Fannie Mae FNM
This favored situation is costing taxpayers money and should not happen. The market should subsidize the risk that are taken by some of the worlds largest financiers.
Please stop the political crap and let the markets work.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!
The first thing we hear is....some institutions are not too big to fail.
Now this action says that certain companies can be saved and our gov officials will say who gets saved and who does not.
http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2008/2008-143.htm
The SEC has issued a list of companies that have been identified by the commission.
" Washington, D.C., July 15, 2008 - The Securities and Exchange Commission today issued an emergency order to enhance investor protections against "naked" short selling in the securities of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and primary dealers at commercial and investment banks."
This is a 2 hour video of the hearings where Paulson and Bernanke speak out about why the GOV should give them a "Blank Check"
The securities identified in the Commission's order:
Company Ticker Symbol(s)
BNP Paribas Securities Corp. BNPQF or BNPQY
Bank of America Corporation BAC
Barclays PLC BCS
Citigroup Inc. C
Credit Suisse Group CS
Daiwa Securities Group Inc. DSECY
Deutsche Bank Group AG DB
Allianz SE AZ
Goldman, Sachs Group Inc GS
Royal Bank ADS RBS
HSBC Holdings PLC ADS HBC and HSI
J. P. Morgan Chase & Co. JPM
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. LEH
Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. MER
Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. MFG
Morgan Stanley MS
UBS AG UBS
Freddie Mac FRE
Fannie Mae FNM
This favored situation is costing taxpayers money and should not happen. The market should subsidize the risk that are taken by some of the worlds largest financiers.
Please stop the political crap and let the markets work.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
CPI, Bernanke, Oil, and Housing Numbers
Oil was down today, closing the day at $138.74. Down $6.44.
Gold was up today to $978.70. Up today $5.00.
Dow was down today to 10,962.54. Down today 92.65.
Lots of big meaningful information out on Wednesday
The Plunge Protection Team probably cannot stop what is going to happen in the next 10 days. The dramatic downward day we will see, and the a dead cat bounce, bear market short term rally, or a short term trend reversal. Whatever you call it, this leg down will come to an end. At that time we will revisit the level of either 11400, 11700, or 12100 we think. If I had to pick one level more than the others, I like 11400 for the top of the next part of the infamous range trade.
Oil showed some weakness today, but with the hurricane season here, Nigeria still under siege with committed rebels, and Israel and Iran in the background, and current levels of demand/supply, oil still has room to move higher in the next 1-3 months.
Gold to me is surprisingly low considering the situation of dollar destructiveness, and the US having to pick a road to walk on when it comes to driving the economy in the ground or keeping rates low and suffering higher commodity prices. 1300-1500 in gold does not seem like a far stretch.
Here is 8 Minutes of Mr.Commodity, Jim Rogers. Brilliant gentleman that lets you know up front what is on his mind.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity !!!
Gold was up today to $978.70. Up today $5.00.
Dow was down today to 10,962.54. Down today 92.65.
Lots of big meaningful information out on Wednesday
The Plunge Protection Team probably cannot stop what is going to happen in the next 10 days. The dramatic downward day we will see, and the a dead cat bounce, bear market short term rally, or a short term trend reversal. Whatever you call it, this leg down will come to an end. At that time we will revisit the level of either 11400, 11700, or 12100 we think. If I had to pick one level more than the others, I like 11400 for the top of the next part of the infamous range trade.
Oil showed some weakness today, but with the hurricane season here, Nigeria still under siege with committed rebels, and Israel and Iran in the background, and current levels of demand/supply, oil still has room to move higher in the next 1-3 months.
Gold to me is surprisingly low considering the situation of dollar destructiveness, and the US having to pick a road to walk on when it comes to driving the economy in the ground or keeping rates low and suffering higher commodity prices. 1300-1500 in gold does not seem like a far stretch.
Here is 8 Minutes of Mr.Commodity, Jim Rogers. Brilliant gentleman that lets you know up front what is on his mind.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity !!!
AB Yesterday, Today Sprint Announces
SK Telecom announced that it might buy Sprint.
M&A is alive and well. The deal is weeks away if it happens.
Meanwhile, the US Treasury is trying to fleece the taxpayer by petitioning for a blank check from the Federal Gov, for the purpose of bailing out Fannie and Freddie "if needed".
"If Needed", come on Paulson, can't you come up with something better than this. It is so sad that someone that has led the one of the best investment banks(Golden Sachs) is forced to present such an unprecedented argument in an unimaginative fashion.
Senator Bunning is the only person that spoke today that made any sense when addressing the overall situation and that Paulson and Bernanke were petitioning for a miracle that should never have to happen.
http://bunning.senate.gov/public/
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!
M&A is alive and well. The deal is weeks away if it happens.
Meanwhile, the US Treasury is trying to fleece the taxpayer by petitioning for a blank check from the Federal Gov, for the purpose of bailing out Fannie and Freddie "if needed".
"If Needed", come on Paulson, can't you come up with something better than this. It is so sad that someone that has led the one of the best investment banks(Golden Sachs) is forced to present such an unprecedented argument in an unimaginative fashion.
Senator Bunning is the only person that spoke today that made any sense when addressing the overall situation and that Paulson and Bernanke were petitioning for a miracle that should never have to happen.
http://bunning.senate.gov/public/
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!
Monday, July 14, 2008
VIX Climbs and Financials Unwind
OIl was up to $145.18 on Monday. Up $0.10.
Gold was up to $981.60. Up $7.90 on Monday.
Dow closed at 11,055.19 on Monday. Down -45.35.
Well as the GSEs now have the full faith of the Fed, we once again pay for this debacle as taxpayers.
Today the Dow broke the technical level of 11100 for a closing level. This is significant and along with poor economic news tomorrow, the Dow will open lower.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!
Gold was up to $981.60. Up $7.90 on Monday.
Dow closed at 11,055.19 on Monday. Down -45.35.
Well as the GSEs now have the full faith of the Fed, we once again pay for this debacle as taxpayers.
Today the Dow broke the technical level of 11100 for a closing level. This is significant and along with poor economic news tomorrow, the Dow will open lower.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!
Saturday, July 12, 2008
Pressures, Catalyst and Change
Oil up to $145.08. Up $3.43 on Fridays session.
Gold up to $960.60. Up $18.60 on the day.
Dow down to 11,100.54. Down 128.48 on Friday.
Crude set a new record Friday.
Fannie and Freddie on the brink of being bailed out.
And the biggest indicator, InBev upping the anty to buy AB for 70 a share from 65.
People drink more during poor economic times, is what the data shows us
Next week with certain indicators being released like CPI being released, while the Fed is scrambling to piece its world back together, might not be the best time to be in the equity markets. Cash is King when Rome is burning.
The uncertainty will end soon and the world will be able to watch equities either go up sharply in the short term or continue its retracement to 50% of the the Dow highs of 14100. We expect that Dow could show us 7000 in the next year. But in the short term might bounce to 11700 or 12100.
Here is a video of big oil talking about big oil.
Indy Mac Bank is now managed by the U.S. Regulators BTW.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!
Gold up to $960.60. Up $18.60 on the day.
Dow down to 11,100.54. Down 128.48 on Friday.
Crude set a new record Friday.
Fannie and Freddie on the brink of being bailed out.
And the biggest indicator, InBev upping the anty to buy AB for 70 a share from 65.
People drink more during poor economic times, is what the data shows us
Next week with certain indicators being released like CPI being released, while the Fed is scrambling to piece its world back together, might not be the best time to be in the equity markets. Cash is King when Rome is burning.
The uncertainty will end soon and the world will be able to watch equities either go up sharply in the short term or continue its retracement to 50% of the the Dow highs of 14100. We expect that Dow could show us 7000 in the next year. But in the short term might bounce to 11700 or 12100.
Here is a video of big oil talking about big oil.
Indy Mac Bank is now managed by the U.S. Regulators BTW.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!
Thursday, July 10, 2008
Dow Down 235 /Regulation or Strangulation?
The rumour is that Pimco is taking money out of Lehman. Could this be the demise of Lehman?
Tuesday the Dow was down over 235. It happened after the Vix went from 23 back to 25.
I would think that with the financials down so low right now, that along with several banks, the failure of another large investment bank is totally possible.
Count on the government making it more difficult for the investment banks to make a profit. Paulson, with his years spent at Goldman, might be the only hope to have our markets maintain some type of risk. On the flipside, and I know it is not his decision, I can only imagine that he is one voice that will be pushing to keep interest rates down as long as possible.
Since the Financials lead the Market, with the demise of Freddie and Fannie,
we are headed lower. This will be the first quarter that US Corporations living with $110 plus cost for a barrel of oil. Keep in mind oil is used in so much more than simply transportation.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!
Tuesday the Dow was down over 235. It happened after the Vix went from 23 back to 25.
I would think that with the financials down so low right now, that along with several banks, the failure of another large investment bank is totally possible.
Count on the government making it more difficult for the investment banks to make a profit. Paulson, with his years spent at Goldman, might be the only hope to have our markets maintain some type of risk. On the flipside, and I know it is not his decision, I can only imagine that he is one voice that will be pushing to keep interest rates down as long as possible.
Since the Financials lead the Market, with the demise of Freddie and Fannie,
we are headed lower. This will be the first quarter that US Corporations living with $110 plus cost for a barrel of oil. Keep in mind oil is used in so much more than simply transportation.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity.com!!!
Tuesday, July 8, 2008
Triple Threat Tuesday.....The Big 3 Converge to Show Strength
Oil was down on the day to $136.04. Down $5.33pb.
Gold was down today to $923.30. Down today $5.50po.
Dow finished up today, to 11,384.21. Up 152.25 today.
Jamie Dimon on Charlie Rose discusses the Bear Stearns buyout. This is the full hour program with Rose interviewing Dimon.
The last hour today was pretty powerful for a bear market. It would be hard to describe that kind of exuberance while everyone is saying that the market won't move just because it is oversold.
Yet today held something you don't see very often. Bernanke, Jamie Dimon, and Paulson talking on the same day. This triple barrel assault on bad news and negative outlook brought about a second glance at equities that we have not witnessed in a while.
Is this a temporary bottom? It sure closed with momentum that could last a day or two. If it is a temporary bottom, it could last to either 11700 on the Dow or possibly 12100.
If you think it is going to go that type of distance, you might want to check out the ETF, SSO. The IYR moved big today and will surely drop fast once this momentum leaves. Watch the fast food stocks as commodity prices continue to drop. This can boost their bottom line quick.
Keep an eye out for the Oil Report in the am. It could add to the downward momentum of the energy sector.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!
Gold was down today to $923.30. Down today $5.50po.
Dow finished up today, to 11,384.21. Up 152.25 today.
Jamie Dimon on Charlie Rose discusses the Bear Stearns buyout. This is the full hour program with Rose interviewing Dimon.
The last hour today was pretty powerful for a bear market. It would be hard to describe that kind of exuberance while everyone is saying that the market won't move just because it is oversold.
Yet today held something you don't see very often. Bernanke, Jamie Dimon, and Paulson talking on the same day. This triple barrel assault on bad news and negative outlook brought about a second glance at equities that we have not witnessed in a while.
Is this a temporary bottom? It sure closed with momentum that could last a day or two. If it is a temporary bottom, it could last to either 11700 on the Dow or possibly 12100.
If you think it is going to go that type of distance, you might want to check out the ETF, SSO. The IYR moved big today and will surely drop fast once this momentum leaves. Watch the fast food stocks as commodity prices continue to drop. This can boost their bottom line quick.
Keep an eye out for the Oil Report in the am. It could add to the downward momentum of the energy sector.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!
Monday, July 7, 2008
Vix........25 and going higher!!!
Oil closed today at $141.37. Today oil was down $3.92
Gold closed today at $928.80. Down $4.80 Monday.
Dow closed today at 11,231.96. Down 56.58 in Mondays session.
Watch Peter Schiff talk here....the gold standard is a steep idea, but there are some good points. You cannot artificially prop up this country until everything is "free with interest" and there are "no payments until the last year of your life".
With oil currently breaking down, and commodity stocks and commodities feeling the pressure from the US Dollar, will we see the Vix capitulation that everyone talks about? Will we see Vix 35-40 with a big bang down day that will lead to a short term rally in this bull market?
I wish I could answer this question. I believe the best we can do is to be looking out for the potential signs that might point to us to a possible trend reversal.
The dollar has done a great job in the last 3 trading sessions. It is causing the inflationary trend to see a different direction in the commodity arena.
Tuesday and Thursday of this week we will hear Ben Bernanke speak and probably speak tough on the "stronger" dollar belief that he and Paulson commonly refer to but rarely act upon.
I expect that in one week, one month, or some undetermined amount of time, our government might have to drop rates one more time before they start to raise them.
There is no other way to prop the financials up after finding out how much more money they will need in an era of new government financial regulation.
So, as our government trys to assist the economy, it looks as if it is shooting itself in the foot based on the new information it is receiving due to the opening of the new Fed window for investment banks to finance their "not so good" secured debt.
Until all the doors and windows are open to all, there will not be any transparency.
The financials keep surprising us, and yet the market looks like it might be absorbing bad news in a better way. It feels as if it wants to bounce North a little, but cannot get a good floor to bounce from.
Lets keep our eyes out for that floor.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!
Gold closed today at $928.80. Down $4.80 Monday.
Dow closed today at 11,231.96. Down 56.58 in Mondays session.
Watch Peter Schiff talk here....the gold standard is a steep idea, but there are some good points. You cannot artificially prop up this country until everything is "free with interest" and there are "no payments until the last year of your life".
With oil currently breaking down, and commodity stocks and commodities feeling the pressure from the US Dollar, will we see the Vix capitulation that everyone talks about? Will we see Vix 35-40 with a big bang down day that will lead to a short term rally in this bull market?
I wish I could answer this question. I believe the best we can do is to be looking out for the potential signs that might point to us to a possible trend reversal.
The dollar has done a great job in the last 3 trading sessions. It is causing the inflationary trend to see a different direction in the commodity arena.
Tuesday and Thursday of this week we will hear Ben Bernanke speak and probably speak tough on the "stronger" dollar belief that he and Paulson commonly refer to but rarely act upon.
I expect that in one week, one month, or some undetermined amount of time, our government might have to drop rates one more time before they start to raise them.
There is no other way to prop the financials up after finding out how much more money they will need in an era of new government financial regulation.
So, as our government trys to assist the economy, it looks as if it is shooting itself in the foot based on the new information it is receiving due to the opening of the new Fed window for investment banks to finance their "not so good" secured debt.
Until all the doors and windows are open to all, there will not be any transparency.
The financials keep surprising us, and yet the market looks like it might be absorbing bad news in a better way. It feels as if it wants to bounce North a little, but cannot get a good floor to bounce from.
Lets keep our eyes out for that floor.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!
Thursday, July 3, 2008
Calm Before the Storm...or Is It a Hurricane?
Oil(CLQ8) was up today to $145.37. Up $1.80pb.
Gold(GCQ8) was down today $11.50 to $935.00po
Dow was up today to 11,288.54. Up 73.03 today.
This is a great video talking about oil. 3-5 years could bring $500 per barrel oil Professor Hirsch says.
It looks like the storm might be changing for the short term at least. If you look at the UUP, you will see it has room on the upside to move over the next 5 to 15 days to 23. The UUP measures the value of the dollar. This equity index involves looking into the currency market, so it can be tricky. Trichet raised rates in the EU and possibly due to the influence of Paulson(US Treasury)made his rate hike sound as if it could be a "one and done" instead of a chain of rate hikes. Well, the market might have been expecting a series of rate hikes, and when they heard his guidance on the state of EU currency, the Market decided the Dollar was not going to take the beating it might have if the EU were to commit to a series of rate hikes.
This in turn is causing the commodities to break the pattern that they have been in.
They have been on a bull tear for over a year now and the world will need these commodities for years to come, but they look to be losing a little steam right now.
Ultimately though, until the Fed raises rates instead of simply talking about it, the US Dollar is cursed and oil and food will continue to rise to the occasion.
There are some great coal companies with high P/Es that are still available.
Our favorite is CNX(Consol Energy).
It was pretty interesting that that Dow closed below 11,300 today after being spending much of the session above that level. The news that came out today was anything but pretty, yet the market rose. This news might be digested over the weekend and we might see a tumble on Monday. Watch 2 elements to cause change either way.
One is Oil, hurricane or Middle East problems could send oil spiraling.
Two is the Dollar, if the Fed were to come out this weekend and pull a "Bear Stearns" out of their ear, it could have a positive impact on the dollar that would shift the Market into the an equity frenzy by crushing commodities.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!
Gold(GCQ8) was down today $11.50 to $935.00po
Dow was up today to 11,288.54. Up 73.03 today.
This is a great video talking about oil. 3-5 years could bring $500 per barrel oil Professor Hirsch says.
It looks like the storm might be changing for the short term at least. If you look at the UUP, you will see it has room on the upside to move over the next 5 to 15 days to 23. The UUP measures the value of the dollar. This equity index involves looking into the currency market, so it can be tricky. Trichet raised rates in the EU and possibly due to the influence of Paulson(US Treasury)made his rate hike sound as if it could be a "one and done" instead of a chain of rate hikes. Well, the market might have been expecting a series of rate hikes, and when they heard his guidance on the state of EU currency, the Market decided the Dollar was not going to take the beating it might have if the EU were to commit to a series of rate hikes.
This in turn is causing the commodities to break the pattern that they have been in.
They have been on a bull tear for over a year now and the world will need these commodities for years to come, but they look to be losing a little steam right now.
Ultimately though, until the Fed raises rates instead of simply talking about it, the US Dollar is cursed and oil and food will continue to rise to the occasion.
There are some great coal companies with high P/Es that are still available.
Our favorite is CNX(Consol Energy).
It was pretty interesting that that Dow closed below 11,300 today after being spending much of the session above that level. The news that came out today was anything but pretty, yet the market rose. This news might be digested over the weekend and we might see a tumble on Monday. Watch 2 elements to cause change either way.
One is Oil, hurricane or Middle East problems could send oil spiraling.
Two is the Dollar, if the Fed were to come out this weekend and pull a "Bear Stearns" out of their ear, it could have a positive impact on the dollar that would shift the Market into the an equity frenzy by crushing commodities.
Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!
Tuesday, July 1, 2008
Cramer Calls It a Rally........LOL
Oil(CLQ8) was up today to 141.74. Up 77 cents.
Gold (GCN8) closed today at $942.50, up $16.30.
Dow closed today @ 11,382.26, up 32.25.
Today was not a rally........they call it short covering!
The Auto industry lead the pack today.
http://tiny.cc/7G1yk
Oil is choking the Western World right now. Until oil breaks, Fannie Mae and housing comes back, do not count on the Equity Market coming back for the long term.
In the short term, keep an eye on oil and the VIX to hit 35-40and then look to go long in the short term.
Jobs and Unemployment come out tomorrow. Thursday is a half day. Oil at all time highs, and a 3.5 day weekend...are you leaving your positions open? I bet not.
Good Fortune from Trade Equity!!!
Gold (GCN8) closed today at $942.50, up $16.30.
Dow closed today @ 11,382.26, up 32.25.
Today was not a rally........they call it short covering!
The Auto industry lead the pack today.
http://tiny.cc/7G1yk
Oil is choking the Western World right now. Until oil breaks, Fannie Mae and housing comes back, do not count on the Equity Market coming back for the long term.
In the short term, keep an eye on oil and the VIX to hit 35-40and then look to go long in the short term.
Jobs and Unemployment come out tomorrow. Thursday is a half day. Oil at all time highs, and a 3.5 day weekend...are you leaving your positions open? I bet not.
Good Fortune from Trade Equity!!!
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