Wednesday, April 30, 2008

25 Basis Points and Unwinding Ag Trade

We may be entering the curve toward lower inflation. Today the Fed lowered 25 basis points and the market dropped from 120 up to finish in negative territory.

With Microsoft on the brink of a meeting to discuss a hostile takeover of Yahoo, is the money leaving the Commodity trade and going into Technology for a 180 degree sector rotation?

It could happen with companies such as Potash, Monsanto, and Agrium displaying bubble characteristics and Technology being down for so long. DRYS looks to be on the brink of a pullback due to Commodities and possible increased currency valuation as the Fed slows their interest rate cuts.

Starbucks hit their earnings estimate today after hours. 15cents per share is what they were expecting.

You might want to ask yourself, how far will the Commodity pullback spread? It has hit Oil, Sugar, and now Fertilizer. Will it hit mining companies? Possibly, but as long as certain countries continue to(fight inflation due to growth, such as India and China) expand, building will continue.

The VIX is still within 1 point of 20. Still modest compared to the 3 month average of 23.

Keep your eye on the 13500 level on the Dow. and then a retracement to stay within the range of 12600.

Good Fortune from Trade Equity!!!