Friday, May 9, 2008

Market Closer 5-9-2008

The Dow closed today, down 120.90 to 12,745.88.

But the overall huge news this week is our slimy friend, oil. Up from $85 per barrel in Feb., to $125+ today. Up 1.84% just today, again.

Yet you ask where are the signs that oil is slowing our business cycle? Well had you asked me yesterday, I would have been hard pressed to give a you a real measure of slowing due to oil.

But today I can point you directly to FedEx and their after hour report stating that the cost of oil directly led to their profit in a range of $1.45 to $1.50 a share, down from its previous forecast of $1.60 to $1.80 a share. While the share price fell over 6% today, FedEx said that there estimated fuel cost has risen $100M since oil it $100 per barrel.

Is this the straw that will help pull back the transport run up we have witnessed?

***Maybe it is time to hire a trader(or 10) and start hedging 100% of the time? We love to trade, but that is just an idea.

ANB Financial is the 3rd bank to close and it happened today. If you want the full story, get it here, right from the stable owners mouth, not the horse. Keep your belt buckled as we prepare to see this 50 more times. This shoe will turn out to be a sandal, due to a government bail out.
You heard that here first, possibly. We are more concerned about your neighbor that has lost his residential checking account due to the lack of pre-governance between the Federal Gov(who regulates and licenses everything from airlines to stock brokers, but allowed every cowboy in the US to issue loans) and Mortgage industry.

http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/anb.html


Keep an eye on who is financing the Democratic nominees, and as we draw closer to November, what the market does in coordination with news from the Democratic camp. It will be interesting as foreclosures peak in September, oil hits all time highs, and the Democrats look like they might be taking in more money than Senator McCain, from the same people that backed Bush in his campaign.

It looks like Bush, btw, might veto the bill from Barney Frank and Friends. Thank you.

Good Fortune from Trade Equity!!!

Market LunchBox

1:50 EST

Oil showed its biggest weekly gain in 2 years, and is $1.60 up for the session currently $125.29 pb.

Gold is up $4.20 to rise above $886 po.

The Dow is down 130 points currently, but still above 12700 at 12736.

If we can close above 12700 today, or 12750, Monday could be looking good.

Today is a buying opportunity for stocks that beat up after earnings and this week in general.

HANS missed earnings yesterday and is down today. You might take a look at it, and listen to the conference call on Hansens.com. The company took some cost this quarter it may not face next quarter leading us to believe it may show well next quarter. We would wait til it rounds the corner heading North, before you jump in.

LDK is still performing well for us, and BW looks very promising also.

We own both LDK and BW.

Good Fortune from Trade Equity!!!

PreMarket Buzz

Oil up, Financials down, and Retail down.

Bad news out of AIG, lead some to believe that this could be the end of the bear market rally that
the market has been enjoying since March 18th. We do not think this is the case. While oil strangles the US economy, we think oil and financials will bring us back down toward 12700-12100.

Citi is looking forward to many changes under Pandit.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aWst.LBIN368&refer=home



After that, we might see 13500 on the DOW again.

Watch the SKF and the XRT today, not to mention the USO.

Good Fortune from Trade Equity!!!