Monday, July 7, 2008

Vix........25 and going higher!!!

Oil closed today at $141.37. Today oil was down $3.92


Gold closed today at $928.80. Down $4.80 Monday.


Dow closed today at 11,231.96. Down 56.58 in Mondays session.

Watch Peter Schiff talk here....the gold standard is a steep idea, but there are some good points. You cannot artificially prop up this country until everything is "free with interest" and there are "no payments until the last year of your life".





With oil currently breaking down, and commodity stocks and commodities feeling the pressure from the US Dollar, will we see the Vix capitulation that everyone talks about? Will we see Vix 35-40 with a big bang down day that will lead to a short term rally in this bull market?

I wish I could answer this question. I believe the best we can do is to be looking out for the potential signs that might point to us to a possible trend reversal.

The dollar has done a great job in the last 3 trading sessions. It is causing the inflationary trend to see a different direction in the commodity arena.

Tuesday and Thursday of this week we will hear Ben Bernanke speak and probably speak tough on the "stronger" dollar belief that he and Paulson commonly refer to but rarely act upon.

I expect that in one week, one month, or some undetermined amount of time, our government might have to drop rates one more time before they start to raise them.
There is no other way to prop the financials up after finding out how much more money they will need in an era of new government financial regulation.

So, as our government trys to assist the economy, it looks as if it is shooting itself in the foot based on the new information it is receiving due to the opening of the new Fed window for investment banks to finance their "not so good" secured debt.

Until all the doors and windows are open to all, there will not be any transparency.
The financials keep surprising us, and yet the market looks like it might be absorbing bad news in a better way. It feels as if it wants to bounce North a little, but cannot get a good floor to bounce from.

Lets keep our eyes out for that floor.

Good Fortune from Trade-Equity!!!